Drop ISA charges against RPK

Ramakrishnan , ALIRAN

Aliran would like to echo the plea of secretary-general Jean-Francois Julliard of Reporters Without Borders requesting His Majesty the Yang diPertuan Agong to intercede in the case of Raja Petra Kamarudin who is better known as RPK.

RPK was detained under the ISA for posting certain articles in his web-page that were deemed to be a “threat to internal security.” He has been posting many, many provocative articles for years. His articles have been eye-opening, thought-provoking, sensational, and simply incredible. His web-page has an amazing number of daily hits, proving that he has a large following.

His readers are from all backgrounds. They are amused, angry or incredulous but no one has rioted or threatened the security of the nation because of RPK’s articles. This is why it is difficult to believe that RPK is a “threat to internal security.” There is no evidence even to hint of this possibility.

He is already facing a series of court charges for some of the articles. Aliran has no quarrel with this. If anybody felt defamed or hurt by his articles, the aggrieved party should sue him and take him to court. The government should not be suing RPK on behalf of the aggrieved party.

While some of the cases are on-going, why is it necessary to detain him under the ISA? Instead of resorting to the ISA, can’t RPK be pinned down by existing laws and taken to court to be judged for his alleged offence?
The obnoxious thing about the ISA is that there are no charges against a person and no right of defence is available to the unfortunate detainee. He is simply detained for no definite reason.

He was detained on 12 September 2008. RPK challenged his detention. The High Court released him on 7 November 2008. Can’t we let matters rest at that instead of pursuing it further to put him away?

As far as the people are concerned, the widespread perception is that the government is intent on putting him away because he has damaging information that could discredit the BN government. The BN is worried that his articles will expose the BN and ridicule it in the eyes of the public. This is a very persuasive belief.

Aliran hopes that His Majesty will intercede to ensure that every subject of his will be treated with courtesy and accorded justice, which is a fundamental right of a person.

60:40 or 50:50?

It is ironical that Barisan Nasional is in fact giving Pakatan Rakyat money through the Chinese. The Barisan Nasional money given to the Chinese ends up in the hands of Pakatan Rakyat, plus more.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

The soothsayers are divided. Some say that the Kuala Terengganu by-election is a 50:50 situation. Others say it is 60:40, in favour of PAS.

On a level playing field I would tend to agree with the 60:40 prediction. However, seeing that the playing is anything but level, I would tend to go for the 50:50 forecast — unless PAS is able to plug all the holes.

First of all, Umno is paying up to RM1,000 per vote. And this is how the system works.

A voter goes into the polling station to collect his/her ballot paper. He/she then puts it in his/her pocket. He/she drops a dummy ballot paper into the ballot box. He/she comes out and ‘sells’ the ballot paper to an Umno goon waiting outside. He/she goes home RM1,000 the richer.

The blank ballot paper is marked Barisan Nasional. It is then given to the next voter. He/she collects his/her ballot paper and puts it in his/her pocket. He/she drops the already marked ballot paper into the ballot box. He/she comes out and hands over the blank ballot paper to the Umno goon waiting outside in exchange for RM1,000.

The process is repeated thousands of times all over Kuala Terengganu at the 38 polling stations.

Another method would be: the voter goes into the polling station with his/her hand phone. He/she marks the ballot paper in the Barisan Nasional box and photographs it with his/her hand phone. He/she then drops the ballot paper into the ballot box. He/she comes out and shows the photo in the hand phone to an Umno goon and receives RM1,000.

All this is of course further to the ‘phantom voters’ who will be voting tomorrow. One man closely related to the Agong showed me the electoral roll where four unknown Chinese voters were registered at his house address. He does not know who these four Chinese are and how they got registered at his house address. How many thousands more are ‘registered voters’ in this manner is yet to be known because not all house owners check the electoral role to look for strangers registered at their address. But expect the figure to run into the thousands. And also expect all these strangers to come out to vote tomorrow.

8,000 registered voters live and work outside Kuala Terengganu. This means 10% of the Kuala Terengganu voters are out of town. Will they all come home to vote? If not, then how many will? The lower the voter turnout, the more chance Barisan Nasional will have of padding the ballot box.

The average voter turnout in any general election is roughly 75%. It is sometimes even lower in a by-election. Tomorrow, Kuala Terengganu may see a voter turnout as high as 80% to 85%. In the 2004 general election, the voter turnout in Kuala Terengganu was 130%, as it was in Kuala Selangor and some other places all over Malaysia. After the ‘error’ was pointed out by Malaysiakini, the figure was ‘adjusted’ to 85% or so.

When asked to explain the voter turnout of 130%, the Elections Commission said that the 130% figure was not yet gazetted so it is unofficial. It is not official until it is gazetted. The gazetted figure was then adjusted to make it look more believable.

Invariably, Umno knows it can’t win the Kuala Terengganu by-election tomorrow unless its cheats like hell. In a fair and free election, Pakatan Rakyat is going to win the by-election with a majority of 5,000 votes. They need to ensure that Barisan Nasional wins by at least 1,000 votes. So the vote buying and rigging needs to be maximised like there is no tomorrow.

I have placed a bet on Pakatan Rakyat winning the Kuala Terengganu by-election tomorrow with a 5,000-vote majority. Will Pakatan Rakyat be able to plug all the holes and ensure that this happens? Or am I going to be a slightly poorer person by tomorrow night? Let’s wait and see.

The Chinese voters in Kuala Terengganu are very upset. Barisan Nasional has been handing out millions of ringgit to their schools and associations — plus RM300 Chinese New Year ‘Ang Pows’ to each voter.

“Why are you insulting us by giving us RM300 Ang Pows?” one reasonably rich Chinese asked me. “Do you think we are so bangsat we need this RM300?”

“If the government treats the Chinese better you do not need to bribe us with RM300. If you treat us better we can give the government RM300. RM300 is nothing. It is a small amount.”

“The fact that the government needs to give us RM300 means the government has not treated the Chinese well. That is why they give us RM300 to buy our votes. If not, no need to give us any money. We can give the government money instead.”

I never thought of it that way. And probably neither did Barisan Nasional. I suppose the many dinners thrown over the last two weeks lies testimony to this. The Chinese pay to attend the Pakatan Rakyat dinners. And the hall is not only packed but overflowing as well. The crowd is not just inside the hall. Hundreds more stand outside to listen to the many speeches. And they stay till the very end.

And in spite of everyone having to pay for the dinner, when the collection box is passed around everyone puts in RM50 notes into the box. Tens of thousands are collected every night. And this is further to the dinner that they pay for.

Barisan Nasional invites the Chinese to free diners. However, not only is the hall half empty, the Chinese whack the food and then leave before the speeches start. By the time the speeches start most people have gone home.

Throwing money to the Chinese does not work. For every ringgit Barisan Nasional throws to the Chinese, they throw back double that amount to Pakatan Rakyat. It is ironical that Barisan Nasional is in fact giving Pakatan Rakyat money through the Chinese. The Barisan Nasional money given to the Chinese ends up in the hands of Pakatan Rakyat, plus more.

That is all for now, my brief report this morning. I now have to take Zaid Ibrahim to Chinatown for breakfast and for one last walkabout before Polling Day. Till we speak again, take care and phone all those Kuala Terengganu voters outside the state and convince them to come home to vote tomorrow.

Day 1, Round 1: Pakatan Rakyat

The Chinese have no qualms that the outcome of the Kuala Terengganu by-election rest in their hands. But would they take that bold step of giving the seat to the opposition? Day 1 of the campaign is too early to determine this.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Pakatan Rakyat was clearly the winner on Day 1 of the Kuala Terengganu by-election. Nomination Day saw an estimated crowd of 30,000 to 40,000 Pakatan Rakyat supporters against only 5,000 to 7,000 for Barisan Nasional. In spite of the mainstream media spin that reversed the figures, pictures speak a thousand words and the five pictures below tell all.

At 9.30pm, Anwar Ibrahim addressed an estimated crowd of 20,000 to 30,000 people, mostly all local Kuala Terengganu folks, at Ladang, not far from the Bloggers Operations Centre in Kuala Terengganu. Amongst those who also spoke at this Ceramah Perdana were Lim Kit Siang, Haji Hadi Awang, the Menteri Besar of Kelantan, Nik Aziz Nik Mat, and Mustaffa Ali.

Simultaneously, the Bloggers and a few DAP national leaders graced a dinner that was attended by more than 500 local Chinese residents. We went from table to table to shake the hands of the guests and saw many familiar faces amongst the crowd. The support of the Chinese was most overwhelming, and if the dinner crowd last night is a reflection of the Chinese support for Pakatan Rakyat, then the results of the 17 January 2009 by-election may yet pull a surprise for Barisan Nasional.

But this was only Day 1 and Round 1 of the campaign. We still have 11 more days and 11 more rounds to worry about. An early victory may just be a sign of Pakatan Rakyat winning the battle, but not necessarily that it is winning the war. Ultimately, it is winning the war that counts. You can win ten battles but the victor will be determined by whomsoever wins the war and not whomsoever wins the many battles along the way.

Today’s campaign will be door-to-door. Anwar Ibrahim will be officiating the Parti Keadilan Rakyat operations center at Gong Kapas and will visit 18 kampongs around Kuala Terengganu after which he will be doing a walk-about at the main bus stop and the wet market at 11.00am. The Bloggers will be covering the walk-about and we hope to upload the pictures later today.

Intelligence agencies and the BTN have informed Umno that it has lost Day 1 of the campaign and that efforts must be stepped up to ensure a Barisan Nasional victory. They realise they would not be able to win on a level playing field, so expect the Dirty Tricks Department to launch a series of dirty campaigns later today. What they have planned is not known yet other than they are not confident of victory and therefore need to resort to dirty tactics to turn defeat into victory.

The Chinese voters are fully aware that the Malays are delicately split 50:50 and that it will be the Chinese who will determine the victor. They have been told that the are the Kingmaker but the million dollar question is whom does the Chinese want as their ‘king’ representing them in Parliament as their Member of Parliament.

One issue raised by the Chinese is that they are not too confident that PAS is capable of running the state. Unlike PAS Kelantan, PAS Terengganu is not that sharp, laments the Chinese. And five years of PAS rule from 1999 to 2004 has proven this.

This has to be countered with the argument that the Kuala Terengganu by-election is not about choosing a new state government. The voters will just be sending ‘their man’ to Parliament and not voting to form a new state government. The Chinese must be reminded that the present state government will remain intact even if the opposition wins the Kuala Terengganu parliament seat.

The Chinese have no qualms that the outcome of the Kuala Terengganu by-election rest in their hands. But would they take that bold step of giving the seat to the opposition? Day 1 of the campaign is too early to determine this.

Nevertheless, as in any election, local issues are usually the determining factor. Are the Kuala Terengganu Chinese happy with their government? Do they feel that Umno and Barisan Nasional are just too arrogant and need to be cut down to size? Is it time to send a message to the ruling party that it can no longer take the Chinese for granted and continue insulting them, call them pandatang, threaten them with ‘another May 13’, and ask them to ‘go back to China’ every time they open their mouths and express unhappiness? These would be the factors that will decide which way the Chinese will vote on 17 January 2009.

I now need to go hit the streets and do a walk-about in Chinatown. We will update you with the latest events as they develop. Till later and stayed tuned as we report from Ground Zero in Kuala Terengganu.

THE PAKATAN RAKYAT CROWD

THE BARISAN NASIONAL CROWD

KT byelection: Issues versus personalities

Umno has already announced their candidate, so it is too late to backtrack on that. So it is now left to PAS to choose their candidate. If PAS chooses the right man then Wan Farid is dead meat. But Wan Farid’s chances can improve if PAS makes the mistake of fielding the wrong candidate.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Is the Kuala Terengganu by-election on 17 January 2009 going to be about issues or about personalities? It’s actually going to be a bit of both, with internal bickering and sabotage thrown in, on both sides of the political divide.

To understand Kuala Terengganu one must first understand the history of this town. Over 200 years, Kuala Terengganu used to be the meeting point for foreigners and traders. Most of the settlers of the town came from afar to make Kuala Terengganu their home. Even some so-called Malays are actually Chinese from the Yunan province of China. But they are not regarded as Chinese at all. Malays accept them as fellow Malays and treat them as such. And the Yunanis are no longer ‘practicing’ Chinese, being more Malay than Malays themselves; even surpassing the Babas and Nyonyas of Melaka — who may be ‘Malay’ by customs and language but are not Muslims like the Yunanis of Terengganu.

In the 1970s, when oil was first discovered off the coast of Terengganu, Kuala Terengganu, again, saw an influx of foreigners, mostly oil industry workers and employees of Bristow Helicopters, the British helicopter company contracted by Exxon to ferry the oil rig workers to and from the oil rigs.

At that time, Kertih was still being built so Kuala Terengganu was used as the temporary centre for the oil activities. There was even one CIA man who masqueraded as an oil company man but was actually there to spy for America. Everyone knew he was CIA but no one shied away from clicking his beer glass with the overweight man with the oversized beer belly who did not at all look like the charismatic James Bond.

These ‘foreigners’, Malaysians as well as Caucasians, would frequent the Pertama Coffee House for their ‘happy hours’ and Muslim plus non-Muslim alike would get drunk and engage in the occasional bar room brawl in the Pertama, which was run by a police officer and his wife.

But the locals were not perturbed. These were, after all, ‘foreigners’. Even the Muslim-Malays were considered ‘foreigners’ since they were not local born. And as long as the ‘Anak Terengganu’ of the Muslim faith did not also get drunk in the Pertama, the locals were quite prepared to leave these outsiders to their own devices and to enjoy their ‘decadent’ lifestyles.

Such was the attitude of the Kuala Terengganu population who were prepared to live and let live, even back in the 1970s, just as long as you did not encroach into their territory and ‘import’ your ‘evil ways’ into the homes of the locals. You can do your thing very much unhindered and with not so much as raised eyebrows from the ‘Anak Terengganu’. And this can be considered unique in a state that takes Islam with much seriousness and even calls the state Terengganu Darul Iman (Terengganu the Land of the Faith).

Things have not really changed that much over 30 years. Outsiders are very much welcome in the town, although in the rest of the state the people can be very regionalistic in their ways. A Besut man (Besut is at the Kelantan-Terengganu border in the North) would find it very difficult to gain acceptance in Kemaman (at the Pahang-Terengganu border in the South), and vice versa — in particular if it is to contest a seat in an election. But a Johor man would face no problems contesting a seat in Kuala Terengganu, and winning that seat as well.

Onn Jaafar proved this when he resigned from Umno out of protest — when the party refused to open its doors to the non-Malays — and he formed his own party called Parti Negara. Onn Jaafar contested the Ladang state seat in Kuala Terengganu and won. Bakar Daud too, an ex-police officer, was another outsider who held the Ladang state seat for many terms until the state fell to the opposition in 1999. If there were one seat an outsider would have no problems of winning that would be Kuala Terengganu.

There are four state seats under the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary constituency — Bandar, Batu Burok, Ladang and Wakaf Mempelam. The Kuala Terengganu parliament seat used to be under Umno until its Member of Parliament, Razali Ismail, died on 29 November 2008. Razali was the Deputy Education Minister. But the funny thing is, while the Kuala Terengganu parliament seat was under Umno, three of the four state seats — Batu Burok, Ladang and Wakaf Mempelam — are under PAS. Only the Bandar state seat belongs to Barisan Nasional and even then it is under MCA and not Umno. How could Razali win the Kuala Terengganu parliament seat when three of its four state seats are under PAS?

This can be attributed to Azmi Lope, the PAS state assemblyman for Bandar who won that seat in the 1999 general election. Azmi’s and the late Razali’s wives are sisters. So many PAS supporters, in particular those aligned to Azmi, voted for Razali — although he was Umno — while they did not vote for Umno for the state seat. This shows that family ties and personalities still play a role in how the voters choose their candidate and sometimes the party comes second, especially in a town like Kuala Terengganu, which is considered more ‘liberal’ than the rest of the state.

Umno has already announced its candidate, Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh, the one-time political secretary to Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and now a Senator and Deputy Minister of Home Affairs. Wan Farid is also the Umno Kuala Terengganu division chief. But Wan Farid is not the choice of either Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak or Terengganu Menteri Besar Ahmad Said. Ahmad Said wanted either Roslan Awang Chik or Zubir Embong to contest the seat but was overruled by Abdullah Badawi.

Wan Farid carries a lot of baggage. Wan Hisham, his brother, contested against Razali for the Umno Kuala Terengganu vice-head post, and won. Of course, with his brother as the division head it was easy for Wan Hisham to defeat Razali. Many blame the two brothers and say that they drove Razali to his death. Razali’s supporters will certainly want to make the 17 January 2009 by-election ‘payback time’. So expect an element of internal sabotage.

Roslan and Zubir are no pushovers. These two, Umno warlords from the Bakar Daud days, still have a lot of support and they will certainly want to make sure that Wan Farid does not sail through with an impressive victory. Ahmad Said, too, will want to prove that Abdullah should have listened to him and that Wan Farid is the wrong choice of candidate. We must remember that Ahmad Said is not Abdullah’s choice of Menteri Besar. Idris Jusoh was. Ahmad Said is the Agong’s choice. So we can expect Idris Jusoh to play a role in ensuring that the Menteri Besar loses the Kuala Terengganu by-election.

The opposition will have to ensure that they field the right candidate — which will be announced on 1 January 2009. Mat Sabu is currently the hot favourite. But then he is an outsider. Umno will therefore go all out to discredit him if he is fielded in Kuala Terengganu. But will the issue of calun luar pose a serious problem to PAS? At the moment it does not appear so but it all depends on how the issue is played up, and it will certainly be played up for sure.

The second alternative will be Dr Syed Azman Syed Ahmad Nawawi. But Syed Azman is already the state assemblyman for Batu Burok and this can be used as an issue. Umno can appeal to the voters that since Syed Azman is already a wakil rakyat, while Wan Farid is not, then it is better that the seat be given to Wan Farid instead of Syed Azman. Would the Terengganu voters be prepared to make Syed Azman both a parliamentarian as well as a state assemblyman? There is no way of telling just yet.

Ahmad Said is himself not above controversy. Petronas has just built a shopping complex in Kertih that cost more than RM100 million and one of the tenants is Giant. Giant has already stocked up their hypermarket full of goods plus has hired more than 200 workers. But Ahmad Said will not allow them to open their doors for business.

Petronas tried to meet Ahmad Said to discuss the matter but the Menteri Besar wants to meet Giant and not Petronas. Giant, in turn, refuses to meet Ahmad Said and instead wants Petronas to sue the state government. According to the talk in town, Ahmad Said wants Giant to ‘donate’ a few million ringgit to Umno Terengganu’s ‘war chest’ before he gives them permission to start business. But none of the other Malay-owned establishments have to do the same thing so why is Giant, which is Chinese owned, subjected to this ‘donation’ rule?

PAS can play up this issue to win over the 8,000 or so Chinese voters in Kuala Terengganu. If Umno Terengganu, or Ahmad Said, is seen as racist or anti-Chinese, then this may swing the Chinese votes. And with the other racist from Penang, Ahmad Ismail, still very much in the minds of the Chinese, this stunt by Ahmad Said may yet anger the Chinese enough to vote PAS.

Bandar, which as I said is the only Barisan Nasional seat out of four state seats under the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary constituency, is under MCA because that happens to be the only seat given to the Chinese. The rest of the 31 state seats and 8 parliament seats in the state are all Umno. Therefore, if the Chinese do not give at least that one seat to MCA, then the Chinese will have absolutely no seats in Terengganu.

But that is the Bandar state seat, the solitary seat that MCA contested. The Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat is not MCA but Umno. So there is no reason for the Chinese to be emotional about the Kuala Terengganu parliament seat, which will be Malay versus Malay and not Malay versus Chinese. Sure, the Chinese voted along racial lines when it came to the Bandar seat. That is why the Bandar seat is the only state seat that Barisan Nasional won in Kuala Terengganu. But there is no reason for the Chinese to vote Barisan Nasional when it comes to the parliament seat because whoever wins it will still not be a Chinese anyway.

And what is one more parliament seat for PAS? This will give PAS only 24 seats in total against DAP’s 28 and PKR’s 31. PAS will still be the minority and can’t form the government or even implement Hudud laws with just 24 seats. Plus, if the candidate is Mat Sabu, then one more ‘loose cannon’ can be sent to parliament to give Barisan Nasional a massive headache. So the Chinese will not see any problems with voting for PAS if the candidate is a ‘friend of the Chinese’ like Mat Sabu is known to be.

In 1999, Harun Jusoh of PAS won the Bandar seat and it was because of the Chinese votes. In 1990, the Chinese, again, voted PAS and the MCA candidate was defeated. So, many times in the past the Chinese in Kampong Cina voted PAS rather than for the Chinese candidate from MCA. The Chinese have done this before, many times, and they can do it again. They can vote PAS, especially when voting PAS does not entail ‘sacrificing’ their ‘own’ candidate from MCA.

Bandar is not just Kampong Cina, which is predominantly Chinese. It is also Losong, which is predominantly Malay, and Pulau Kambing, which is a mix of Malay and Chinese. So we need to look at Bandar beyond just the Chinese. The Malays too have a significant vote in the Bandar state seat. But, in the past, when the Malays from Losong and Pulau Kambing were split 50:50, it was the Chinese from Kampong Cina who played the role of ‘kingmaker’.

The bottom line is, the candidate matters. Field the right candidate in Kuala Terengganu and you will win. Field the wrong candidate and not only the voters will reject him or her but your own party will play a role in ensuing that he or she loses. The internal sabotage is going to be brutal, for both Umno and PAS, although more so for Umno than PAS.

PKR has a strong following in Kuala Terengganu and should not be ignored. Even DAP has a presence in Kuala Terengganu and can sway the Chinese voters. PKR and DAP are very comfortable with Mat Sabu and if he is going to be the candidate then expect very strong solidarity from Pakatan Rakyat. But if Mustafa Ali is instead going to be the candidate, then some of the PKR and DAP workers might stage a ‘go slow’ and not be too serious in their campaign.

The problem is not just PKR and DAP though. Even the ‘Young Turks’ in PAS would rather the candidate not be Mustafa Ali. They feel that Mustafa is a hindrance to Pakatan Rakyat solidarity and is from the older generation that should be reduced to an advisory role and not be too prominent on the front line.

Mustafa was also the ‘wet blanket’ who spoke out against Anwar Ibrahim’s plan to form the federal government on 16 September 2008. Many blame Mustafa for throwing a spanner in the works by announcing that the 16 September plan is Anwar’s plan and not Pakatan Rakyat’s plan. Instead of supporting the plan, Mustafa said that he did not think it can happen and has in fact not agreed to it. This sent Pakatan Rakyat into panic mode and there was even talk that PAS might team up with Umno to help prop up the Barisan Nasional government if 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament cross over to Pakatan Rakyat.

Some even went so far as to accuse Mustafa of being an Umno mole whose job is to ensure that Pakatan Rakyat does not succeed in its effort to form a federal government. A lot of damage control needs to be done if Mustafa is chosen to contest the Kuala Terengganu by-election.

The matter of the missing RM7 billion oil royalty or ‘Wang Ehsan’ will also be an election issue, as will the RM300 million a year Terengganu Monsoon Cup. Wan Farid and his brother, Wan Hisham, together with Patrick Lim, have their hands dirty in this and I will be very surprised if this issue is not played up to the hilt. The Agong rejected Idris Jusoh and instead asked that Ahmad Said replace the former as Menteri Besar because of this missing RM7 billion. Even the Agong is upset. So would the Terengganu folks vote for Wan Farid, one of the four men who robbed Terengganu to the tune of RM7 billion?

Then there is the shooting of two people during the Bersih rally along the Batu Burok beach in Kuala Terengganu. It is said that Wan Farid was the man who instructed the police to clamp down on the rally and which resulted in the shooting. Wan Farid, of course, has denied this allegation but witnesses have spotted him in conference with the police just hours before the shooting. Wan Farid will be hard-pressed in washing his hands of this bloody episode along Batu Burok beach.

Kuala Terengganu is a ‘must visit’ come 6 January 2009 once the nominations close. Whether it is going to be a straight fight between PAS and Umno is yet to be seen. But it will be no surprise to everyone if it is a three- or four-corner fight with an ‘independent’ candidate or two entering the fray.

The Kuala Terengganu parliament seat is nobody’s seat. Neither PAS nor Umno can claim it is their seat. And Kuala Terengganu is not one seat. It is a make-up of Kampong Cina, Losong, Pulau Kambing, Ladang, Tanjong, Batu Burok, Kuala Ibai, Cabang Tiga, Wakaf Mempelam, and so on. It is actually many seats in one and a most unpredictable seat to forecast at that. I, for one, would not want to take any bets just yet. There are too many permutations with the candidate being one of the greatest factors to consider.

Umno has already announced their candidate, so it is too late to backtrack on that. So it is now left to PAS to choose their candidate. If PAS chooses the right man then Wan Farid is dead meat. But Wan Farid’s chances can improve if PAS makes the mistake of fielding the wrong candidate.

The more worrying point is, after knowing all these issues, will PAS make the right decision? If they still ignore all these factors and choose the wrong man, then many are going to come away thinking that this was done on purpose. As it is, many are suspicious of the top PAS Terengganu leadership. Talk amongst some people is that PAS many ‘throw’ this election to help Ahmad Said consolidate his position, which is under serious attack from the other factions in Umno Terengganu. In politics this is not unusual — in that we help the weaker enemy against the stronger enemy with a view that, in the end, both enemies will be neutralised when they are equally strong.

PAS is, after all, a political party and in politics an enemy of an enemy can be your friend when it best suits you. And friends can revert to being enemies later once the situation changes. So will the Kuala Terengganu by-election be that platform for PAS to pit one Umno faction against the other? This, the people are speculating, and one wrong move from PAS will set tongues wagging and the “I told you so” will reverberate across the Kuala Terengganu river to the other side of the lavish RM60 million Crystal Mosque built by Patrick Lim, Wan Hisham, Wan Farid and Idris Jusoh at great cost to the taxpayers.

The constantly grumbling Chinese – The Chinese are SUPER kiasu.

Some Chinese say they refuse to vote for PAS because they are worried that PAS may implement Islamic laws. But how can PAS implement Islamic laws when they will never have a two-thirds majority in Parliament?

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Malays can sometimes be real assholes. But at least they are honest about it. Chinese can also sometimes be assholes as well. But they pretend to be something else whilst they are actually the opposite of what they pretend to be. In that sense the Chinese are hypocritical assholes. And this is where the Malays are better than the Chinese. The Malays are honest assholes while the Chinese are dishonest assholes.

Look at what MCA said yesterday. They want PKR and DAP to state their stand on the Hudud laws. But when Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad declared that Malaysia is already an Islamic state and therefore the Malays do not need PAS any more, MCA clapped and whistled just like trained seals in a circus.  MCA should have demanded that Umno states its stand on the Hudud laws the day Mahathir made his announcement. What about the government proposal on the Syariah laws? What has MCA go to say about the matter? Why no response? Why as silent as a church mouse?

Look at the petition to the King and the Sultans. The Malays keep a respectful silence when it comes to the Rulers. Except for a handful of Malays, the majority of the Malays do not drag the Rulers through the mud. And you do not need the Sedition Act for the Malays to show respect to the Rulers.

The Chinese, however, grumble that the Rulers are a waste of money. “Why do we need Rulers?” the Chinese argue. “It just costs us a lot of money to maintain a Monarchy. And the Rulers do not do anything to earn their salary.” But when we take the initiative to send petitions to the Rulers, these same Chinese will argue, “Why waste time with petitions? It is not like the Rulers will do anything.”

So what do the Chinese really want? When they perceive the Rulers as not taking any action, they grumble. But when we take the initiative to bring to the Rulers’ attention certain grievances of the rakyat, they also grumble. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Sometimes I get the impression that these Chinese get an orgasm by grumbling. Maybe it’s a fetish thing, sort of like kinky sex.

Look at the issue of free speech. When I whack the Malays, I am a great guy. I am open. I am fair. I am a person who allows and practices freedom of expression. But, when I whack the Chinese, I am a racist pig. Whacking Malays is good for the country and in the spirit of free speech. Whacking the Chinese is a negative thing and bad for the country’s future.

The Chinese do not believe in freedom of expression. They believe in the freedom to whack the Malays. And whacking the Chinese is not freedom of expression. It is racism.

Look at the issue of who to vote for in the elections. Barisan Nasional is evil. Barisan Nasional is Umno. The non-Malays have no say in Barisan Nasional. The non-Malays in Barisan Nasional are Umno’s running dogs. But we Chinese must vote for Barisan Nasional because it is a devil we know. Pakatan Rakyat may be an angel but it is an angel we don’t know. Better a devil we know than an angel we don’t know.

The Malays are split into four groups. There are the Malays who support Ketuanan Melayu and the New Economic Policy. These Malays will vote for Umno come hell or high water. And they will defend Ketuanan Melayu and the New Economic Policy with their six-inch keris to the death. Then there are the Malays who support PAS, basically because they believe it is the Islamic thing to do. Then there are Malays who want to see transparency, good governance, freedom of expression and assembly, independence of the judiciary, an end to abuse of power and corruption, an end to police brutality, and all those other ‘Western notions’. These Malays will vote for PKR. Then there are those Malays who don’t care a damn and think that all politicians are hypocrites and politics is sheer bullshit. They don’t bother to come out to vote or even to register as voters.

The Malays are clear in their leanings. They don’t hide their feelings. They say it as they see it and you can go to hell if you don’t like what they say for all they care. But you can’t say the same about the Chinese. They grumble and grumble till the cows come home. But they will do the exact opposite of how they feel. They equate Barisan Nasional as the reincarnation of the devil. But then they will vote for Barisan Nasional because it is the devil they know and the devil they know is better than an angel they don’t know.

Some Chinese say they refuse to vote for PAS because they are worried that PAS may implement Islamic laws. But how can PAS implement Islamic laws when they will never have a two-thirds majority in Parliament? PAS contested only 60 seats out of 222 Parliament seats. Then they went and won only 23 seats.

PAS needs about 150 seats in Parliament to change Malaysia from a Secular state into an Islamic state. But when they contest only 60 seats, even if they win all the 60 seats they contest it will still be only 60 seats. And they can’t win all the seats they contest. They can only win less than half the seats they contest. Where would PAS get the 150 parliament seats it requires?

The Chinese counter this argument by saying that PAS can always team up with Umno to form an Islamic state. So better we vote for Barisan Nasional than vote for PAS. This will prevent PAS from teaming up with Umno to change Malaysia into an Islamic state.

Again, this argument does not make sense. If you refuse to vote for PAS because you are scared that PAS will team up with Umno to change Malaysia into an Islamic state, would voting for Umno instead of PAS prevent this? I mean; you are scared of a PAS-Umno alliance. So you refuse to vote for PAS and instead vote for Umno. Does this mean the alliance will not happen if this is what you suspect is going to happen? You are just transferring from the right pocket to the left pocket. The sum total still remains the same.

You transfer your vote from PAS to Umno. One seat less for PAS means an additional seat for Umno. Or you transfer your vote from Umno to PAS. One seat less for Umno means an additional seat for PAS. You are merely ding-donging from PAS to Umno and vice versa. Therefore, if PAS and Umno form an alliance, would not the number of ‘Malay’ seats total the same? How does ‘robbing’ PAS of one seat and giving that seat to Umno have any impact if PAS and Umno form an alliance?

Now, if Umno and DAP are face-to-face in that constituency and you vote for DAP instead of Umno, then this would make a difference. And if PAS faces MCA or Gerakan in that constituency and you vote for MCA or Gerakan, this too would make a difference. Then you are not giving the seat to either PAS or Umno; you are giving it to DAP or MCA or Gerakan. But DAP will face MCA or Gerakan, not Umno, while it is PAS that is facing Umno. So you either vote for PAS or Umno. There is no DAP to vote for. DAP is fighting MCA or Gerakan.

Anyway, PAS has 23 seats in Parliament. Umno has 66. Even if you add Umno Sabah into the equation, Umno’s seats will come to only 79. 23 plus 66 equals 89. Add the 13 Umno Sabah seats and it still comes to only 102. 102 of 222 comes to less than 50% because 50% of 222 is 111.

So you are scared that PAS will betray us and team up with Umno. But if they do that they still do not have the two-thirds they need to change Malaysia into an Islamic state. In fact, they do not even have 50% of the seats. How do you, therefore, reconcile the ‘logic’ that you vote for Barisan Nasional instead of Pakatan Rakyat to prevent PAS from teaming up with Umno? But this is Chinese ‘logic’ for whatever it is worth.

Chinese demand mother-tongue education. They argue that vernacular schools offer better education than national schools. Many Chinese go to Chinese schools while Malays go to national schools, although some Malays do go to Chinese schools. But Malays can rationalise better than the Chinese can. Chinese may be better at mathematics. That I don’t deny. But those Malays who are supposed to be weak in mathematics can count better than the Chinese. The Malays know that 23 plus 79 equals 102. And the Malays know that 50% of 222 is 111. The Chinese don’t know this in spite of the fact they are better at mathematics than the Malays.

No, the Chinese are not poor in mathematics. They are not even stupid. They are in fact quite clever and, at times, cleverer than the Malays. It is just that the Chinese like to grumble. The Chinese are constantly grumbling. And they will raise all sorts of grievances — the Malays this, the Malays that, the Chinese are second-class citizens, the Chinese are unfairly treated, the Malays are mean to the non-Malays, without the Chinese Malaysia would never have developed, Malaysia is what it is because of the Chinese, and so on and so forth. But ask them to act on their grievances and the Chinese will offer a million lame excuses why they will vote Barisan Nasional instead of Pakatan Rakyat.

You can’t get the job because you have no experience and the job specifications stipulate they require at least three years experience. But how to get experience when you can’t get a job? That is called ‘Catch 22’. The Chinese refuse to vote opposition because, according to the Chinese, the opposition does not have a track record in government whilst Barisan Nasional has 51 years experience. But how will the opposition build up its track record or prove what it can do if it never gets to form the government? That is also called ‘Catch 22’.

Maybe the Chinese can answer this question. But their answer will be the typical: better a devil you know than an angel you don’t know. And then, after voting for Barisan Nasional, the Chinese will go on grumbling about how unfairly they have been treated by Umno, and that the non-Malay parties in Barisan Nasional are Umno running dogs, etc., etc., etc. And the Chinese are supposed to have received a better mother-tongue education than the Malays.

You could have fooled me.

Walking on thin ice

Politics, in Malaysia, is about race and religion. And no Malaysian can escape that. And this is why the 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament should not cross over yet, not if it is going to be 30 non-Malay Members of Parliament. It should only happen if the 30 are half Malay and half non-Malay.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

It would be nice to be able to celebrate a white Christmas this year. But it does not snow in Malaysia so this may be quite impossible to wish for. Nevertheless, white and black are mere personal preferences and what is white to some may be black to others. Anyway, what is wrong with black when they say black is beautiful? So we have a ‘black’ or almost black US President who will soon be living in The White House. And certainly they will not change the name to ‘The Black House’ just for the sake of Obama. So white or black, what does it matter? As Deng Xiao Peng said: never mind if it is a black cat or a white cat — so long as it catches a mouse.

A ‘white’ Christmas to most Malaysians would be to wake up on the morning of 25 December 2008 to changes in Malaysia. And ‘change’ here would mean a Pakatan Rakyat government heading the federal government of this nation. Would this be something hopeless to wish for? Would Santa fulfil our wish list this Christmas? Many are no longer holding their breath after the ‘aborted’ 16 September 2008 ‘change’ that did not happen. And it did not happen on the rescheduled date as well. So those who still hoped for a ‘delayed action’ now no longer harbour any hope.

But it is not as simple as many thought it would be. Sure, all it takes is for at least 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament to cross the aisle over to the ranks of the opposition. Is this so difficult? Are there not at least 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament amongst the 140 who clamour for change, as do 50% of the almost 11 million registered voters who voted for the opposition?

Actually, not all the 11 million registered voters came out to vote. As what happened in the 11 general elections before the 8 March 2008 general election, only about 70% of the registered voters came out to vote. The balance 30% stayed home, as they had done since two years before Merdeka in 1955 when we had our first (municipal) elections (the first general election was in 1959). And 12 general elections have shown that only 70% of the registered voters bother to vote. The other 30% do not care who rules Malaysia.

Then we had the 5 million eligible voters who did not even bother to register as voters. So only half the 16 million or so eligible voters actually cast their vote. 8 million Malaysians voted on 8 March 2008 and 8 million more either did not vote or did not register to vote. Half the ‘eligible’ Malaysians sought change. The other half were not concerned what happens to this country. That is the reality of the situation.

And the opposition got only 50% of the votes (which means votes from 25% of the eligible voters). But the 50% that the ruling coalition garnered (which also means votes from 25% of the eligible voters) helped them form the government in all but five states plus they managed to form the federal government with slightly under the two-thirds majority that it hoped it would get. But it still managed to form the federal government, nevertheless, with just half the votes.

Would 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament crossing over to Pakatan Rakyat help solve our problems? Not if the 30 are all non-Malays and the MP for Pasir Mas, Ibrahim Ali, plus the MP for Kulim, Zulkifli Nordin, cross over to Barisan Nasional to reduce Pakatan Rakyat’s majority even further. And we really do not know how many more Pakatan Rakyat MPs, or even some State Assemblymen/women, are lurking in the shadows waiting for the word to change sides. And this is not impossible to happen.

Umno’s nationwide campaign since 8 March 2008 is brilliant, though dangerous. Umno is saying that the Malays have lost political power. Umno is saying that 8 March 2008 was a repeat of 11 May 1969. And the solution to this problem must be the same as the 13 May 1969 ‘solution’, says Umno. This has not only worried the non-Malays but even the Malays as well. And some of these Malays include the Rulers or the Raja-raja Melayu. Umno is playing an extremely dangerous race game and is stoking the sentiments of the nationalist Malays. And there are many nationalist Malays still around, as the Permatang Pauh by-election has proven.

In the Permatang Pauh by-election, Anwar Ibrahim won two out of three votes. This is superb by any standards. But it was the first-timers or young voters who almost unanimously voted for Anwar. In the saluran 4 in one of the UPUs (unit peti undi) or polling stations where the first-timers voted, Anwar garnered more than 400 votes against Arif Shah Bin Omar Shah’s mere 7. But in saluran 1 of that same UPU where the old-timers voted, it was a 50:50 tie between Anwar and Arif Shah.

This means, while the first-timers or young voters were almost entirely with Anwar, the old-timers were split 50:50 between the opposition and Umno. There are many pre-Merdeka voters who still root for Malay nationalism and who do not want Umno out of office. Permatang Pauh proved this as will the Kuala Terengganu by-election probably also prove on 17 January 2009.

Therefore, Umno still has a strong following. There are many who still want Ketuanan Melayu to remain. Sure, they are no longer the majority. They have now been reduced to a minority. But the numbers are still significant, nevertheless. And these are the people the opposition has to win over. But it is not easy to win them over when prejudice, suspicion and distrust cloud their thinking. And to wait for them to die before the majority ‘Malaysian-minded’ swamp the minority ‘Malay-minded’ will take too long to happen. We will need at least another ten years to see this become reality. So this will only happen by the 14th or 15th general election long after 2020.

Thus far, the Umno ‘race-card campaign’ has not quite succeeded. Malaysians are not that bad at maths, though the teaching of maths has ding-donged between English and Bahasa Malaysia. Barisan Nasional has 140 Members of Parliament, 79 of them Malays and 61 non-Malays. Pakatan Rakyat, in turn, has 43 Malay Members of Parliament against 39 non-Malays. This means both Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat are ‘Malay-majority’ coalitions.

But what happens when 30 non-Malay Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament cross over to Pakatan Rakyat? This would still give Barisan Nasional 79 Malays but it will be reduced to 31 non-Malays. This would make Barisan Nasional even more Malay than it is now. But Pakatan Rakyat would now have only 43 Malays against 69 non-Malays. So, while Barisan Nasional has become even more ‘Malay’, Pakatan Rakyat would become a ‘non-Malay’ coalition. And this would also mean that a ‘non-Malay’ government now runs this country once Pakatan Rakyat, with its 112 Members of Parliament, forms the federal government.

This is what concerns the Malays, the Rulers included. And their concern is not that the Malays have ‘lost political power’ and that the non-Malays have now ‘taken over’ this country. After all, they can even accept a non-Malay Prime Minister. So why fret over a non-Malay majority coalition running this country when the Prime Minister is still Malay? Their concern is that Umno will use this issue to ‘prove’ to the nationalist Malays that, finally, the Malays have lost political power, as they had been saying all along since the 8 March 2008 general election in their many road-shows the length and breadth of this country.

This is what Anwar has to guard against. And the Malays, as well as non-Malays, have told him so. The Rulers too have expressed their concern at the possible backlash from the nationalist Malays who will be led to believe that the Malays have lost political power. And if the numbers do not add up then this would make Umno’s job easier. Umno will have no problems convincing the nationalist Malays that the Malays have lost political power.

So, it is not just about the numbers. It is not just about 30 Barisan National Members of Parliament crossing over to Pakatan Rakyat. It is also about the ‘racial balance’. It is about 15 Malays and 15 non-Malays crossing over to enable Pakatan Rakyat to form the federal government with the ‘right’ balance that even Umno can’t quibble over.

The non-Malays do not like to hear this. It sounds too much like racism. Many Malays do not like it as well. But this is the reality of Malaysian politics that continues to haunt us. Politics, in Malaysia, is about race and religion. And no Malaysian can escape that. And this is why the 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament should not cross over yet, not if it is going to be 30 non-Malay Members of Parliament. It should only happen if the 30 are half Malay and half non-Malay. Then Umno will be silenced. Umno can no longer claim that the Malays have lost political power. Umno can no longer suggest that we are now seeing a repeat of May 1969. And Umno can’t propose that they need a May 1969 ‘solution’ to solve the ‘problem’.

Anwar must not just focus on changing the government. It is not about grabbing power. It is about peaceful change with no loss of life, limb or property. It is about a smooth transition where we can move forward to a better Malaysia — not moving one step forwards and two steps backwards to the ‘dark ages’ of turmoil, distrust and polarisation. This must be what the game plan should be all about.

And Anwar knows this. The non-Malays, too, know this. And many Malays know this as well, the Rulers included. It is not just about the number 30. It is about a ‘solid’ 30. And ‘solid’ must be read as the number that Umno can’t use to turn victory for Pakatan Rakyat into defeat for race relations.