Not quite a big win for BN
Although Barisan Nasional has been quick to praise itself after wresting the Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat from PKR, a close look at the results does not show signs of a convincing win.
Starting with the majority of 1,725 attained by BN, should the 627 postal votes in its favour be removed, this leaves BN with a majority of just 1,078.
This is a far cry from the 6,176 combined majority BN attained for the three state seats under the Hulu Selangor constituency in the 2008 general elections.
This could explain why BN deputy chief Muhyiddin Yassin was confident of achieving a 6,000 vote majority ot the eve of the by-election.
During the last general election, there was an obvious occurrence of ‘split voting’ where voters opted for BN at the state level but PKR at the federal level.
One of the oft-repeated suggestions for this was because the Malay voters were unsatisfied with G Palanivel, the incumbent from MIC from 1990 to 2008.
BN tried to address this by fielding a fresh face in the form of P Kamalanathan. Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak also announced a slew of promises as sweeteners.
Two of the most prominent financial promises were RM3 million for the SRJK (C) Rasa and RM5 million for the Sungai Buaya Felda settlers. The caveat? The money would only be disbursed after BN wins.
Split voting
Despite all this, BN still failed to reverse the trend of ‘split voting’ as the majority obtained was still 4,451 short of the total majority obtained from the three state seats in 2008.
The majority BN won yesterday represents a mere 3.5 percent of the total votes cast and is still a historical low since the majority for BN has always exceeded 8,000 votes since 1990.
A cursory analysis would therefore suggest that Hulu Selangor can no longer be considered a BN stronghold.
Apparently aware of this, Najib himself skirted questions yesterday on whether the election results was proof that the public supported his reform agenda.
Previously, Najib declared that the Hulu Selangor by-election was an important referendum on his reform efforts including the New Economic Model, the ’1Malaysia’ concept and the government’s transformation programme.
For the sake of comparison, the outcome of the Hulu Selangor by-election is somewhat similar to that of the Bukit Gantang and Bagan Pinang by-elections which saw an increase in Malay votes for BN and a marked increase in Chinese support for Pakatan Rakyat.
This is especially obvious in Hulu Selangor because BN won in all the Malay majority polling districts while Pakatan made a clean sweep of all the Chinese majority polling districts. Both sides saw a slight increase in votes in these respective areas.
Malays with BN, Chinese with Pakatan
This time round, it is estimated that BN managed to increase their total number of Malay votes to 65 percent and thus PKR failed its achieve its target of attaining 40 percent of the Malay vote.
For reference, the following is a sample of the six highest Malay-majority polling districts: Kpg Soeharto (66.1 percent voted BN), Gedangsa (60.6), Sungai Tengi (68.4), Batang Kali (61), Hulu Kali (62.7) and Sungai Buaya (73.5).
Ground reports suggest that Najib’s financial incentives and BN’s character attack on PKR candidate Zaid Ibrahim’s lifestyle had had an impact on the Malay voters.
The reverse was observed in the Chinese-majority polling districts. A sample is as follows: Kalumpang (77.2 percent voted PKR), Ulu Yam Timur (71.1), Kerling (68), Kuala Kubu Bharu (78.4), Kampung Baru Batang Kali (80.5), Ulu Yam Lama (71.1) and Kampung Baru Rasa (82.5).
Throughout the campaign, PKR and DAP have been raising the issue of Muhyiddin’s ‘Malay first’ statement and Noh Omar’s speech urging Indians and Chinese to be ‘grateful’ for their citizenship and the death of DAP political aide Teoh Beng Hock.
MCA was incapable of providing a credible response to the onslaught and Najib was brought in to offer handouts and promises but this at first appeared to have little effect.
Some have described the Hulu Selangor Chinese community as the biggest winners because they have managed to send a message to the ruling BN while also enjoying all the ‘goodies’ promised or already distributed.
What’s next?
PKR was only able to win at one out of five polling districts with an Indian majority.
It has been suggested that among reasons for PKR’s failure to attract Indian support was the Selangor government’s sluggishness in resolving the community’s problems.
The faiure to obtain the backing of Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf) and its political arm the Human Rights Party has been another factor suggested for PKR’s lack of Indian support.
On the national front, this by-election result is expected to influence the right wing within Umno to push for more bumiputera-affirmative action because of the Malay community endorsement.
For PKR and Pakatan Rakyat, the loss is a blow to Anwar Ibrahim’s leadership and may trigger more defections by Pakatan MPs which in turn may restore BN’s two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat.
Selangor Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim will also be closely scrutinised from now on as his enemies could exploit the by-election loss and blame him for ineffective leadership. Kuek Ser Kuang Keng/Mkini
