Archive for January, 2009

Sapp: Make KL keep RM1bil promise

Posted in Malaysia news with tags , on January 20, 2009 by ckchew

Malaysiakini

The Putrajaya administration has yet to make good a promise made last May to disburse RM1 billion as a special federal grant to Sabah.

MCPX

And the Sabah Progressive Party (Sapp), which pulled out of the Barisan Nasional (BN) stable last September, is exerting pressure on the state cabinet to demand that outgoing Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi fulfils his pledge before leaving office in March.

Sapp chief Yong Teck Lee (left) said in a statement to Malaysiakini today that senior Sabah leader Joseph Pairin Kitingan, who is PBS president, has confirmed that the grant has not been received to date.

“If this BN state government fails to secure the missing RM1 billion, then it would be a dereliction of duty on the part of the BN and its leaders,” Yong said.

It would also be “another big lie perpetrated against the people of Sabah”, he said, echoing Kalabakan MP Ghapur Salleh’s warning that no number of calls by PBS leaders to rebrand BN would prevent the collapse of the state government.

“It is amazing how the PBS president has so casually tried to explain away the missing special grant by saying that federal grants are disbursed from time to time and that there is no problem,” said Yong, a former chief minister of the state.

Sapp has been highlighting the issue because allocation was not made for the special grant in the July 2008 federal supplementary budget; in the 2009 national budget tabled last September 2008; or in the RM7 billion stimulus package tabled last November.

Failure to leverage

Yong further said the state government and federal ministers from Sabah should have made use of Sapp’s voice to press the federal government to allocate the money, particularly after the general election results last March.

“Perhaps, then the Sabah Ministry of Rural Development would have got at least RM300 million for rural projects,” he said.

“The PBS deputy president-cum-federal minister in the Prime Minister’s Department would not then have had to resort to begging the National Security Council for RM1.1 million to rebuild three Kota Marudu suspension bridges which were washed away more than a year ago.”

Yong upped the ante by referring to the Kuala Terengganu by-election, in which BN lost to PAS last Saturday.

“We hope it will not take a by-election in Pensiangan to make BN government fulfill the RM1 billion promise,” he said.

“The people of Sabah will remember that the BN federal government expended billions of ringgit in petroleum royalties, grants and other benefits (in the period) leading up to the Kuala Terengganu by-election.”

On Sept 8 last year, the Kota Kinabalu High Court nullified the Pensiangan election result, which had been won uncontested by BN’s Joseph Kurup on nomination day. An appeal against the decision is pending before the Federal Court.

Elected rep spurned by own party

Posted in Malaysia news with tags on January 20, 2009 by ckchew

Malaysiakini

A Sarawak United People’s Party (Supp) elected representative is finding himself increasingly sidelined and ignored by other party leaders in Sibu after he sided with Deputy Chief Minister and party president Dr George Chan in a party conflict last year.

MCPX

Although the factions, led by Chan and the other led by deputy secretary-general and senior state minister Wong Soon Koh appeared publicly to have set aside their differences, Dr Soon Choon Teck, the Dudong state assemblyperson and an assistant state minister and a staunch Chan supporter, has continued to be given the cold shoulder and boycotted from party activities.

Soon’s decision to throw his support behind Chan as the latter’s leadership was challenged by all Sibu elected representatives from the party, including former Sarikei MP and party deputy president Law Hieng Ding, was seen as a betrayal of the Sibu Foochow cause.

Since then, he has been sidelined and ignored by the Sibu branch led by Wong.

Soon today confirmed to Malaysiakini that the party’s Sibu leaders have boycotted him for the past two years. However, he was quick to say that he and his supporters in Dudong had no intention of leaving the party to join PKR or any other party.

There have been rumours after the falling out between the medical doctor-turned-politician and his colleagues that he was secretly in talks with some opposition parties.

War of words

Asked about rumours that he was about to call a press conference to make a major announcement, Soon said, “Nonsense. No such thing.”

When asked whether he would consider resigning if pushed to a corner, he said: “No.”

Things got worse a few days ago when Wong and Soon engaged in an acrimonious verbal exchange over the recommendations for new councillors in Sibu.

Wong, who is in charge of local government matters, had been quoted last week as saying that Soon could not appoint councillors as the matter must be decided by the party.

Soon replied that as an elected representative he had the right to make recommendations. Today, he insisted that he had, in fact, submitted three names for the two councils – Sibu Municipal Council and the Sibu Urban District Council.

Soon said he was not perturbed and that he would bring the matter up at the next party meeting and the meeting of the Barisan Nasional.

najib says KT loss not a reflection on his leadership – A fallen general renegaded from his responsibility ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Malaysia news with tags on January 20, 2009 by ckchew
By Shannon Teoh

PUTRAJAYA, Jan 20 – Deputy Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak dismissed suggestions that Barisan Nasional’s (BN) defeat in the Kuala Terengganu by-election was a personal setback, insisting instead that it was the collective responsibility of his party.

Najib, who led the BN campaign in Kuala Terengganu, has come under pressure after the loss to Pakatan Rakyat in what was an Umno stronghold.

While the BN candidate was seen as a man closely associated with Datuk Seri Abdullah Badawi, the defeat has put the spotlight on Najib, who will take over as Umno president in March.

Since last Saturday’s defeat, some of Najib’s supporters have been trying to shift the blame for the loss to Abdullah.

‘How do you know it is personal?’ Najib said today when asked whether he thought the loss was a reflection on his leadership.

‘It is a total responsibility of the party when it comes to a by-election. There are many factors, it is not a one-man show.’

Instead, the current deputy president insisted that Umno must change its culture and image to restore support for the party which suffered its second straight electoral loss since BN lost its two-thirds parliamentary majority last March.

Najib said that Umno must conduct a post-mortem of the Kuala Terengganu campaign to look into the various factors for the defeat.

‘By culture and image, I mean the values and attitude of Umno leaders at all levels. We must show values that are accepted by and attractive to the rakyat,’ he told reporters here today.

He explained that this was not limited to the top leadership as the public interacted with Umno and BN leaders at the grassroots level.

‘So they will evaluate Umno based on grassroots leaders.’

Najib said the party acknowledged and respected the choice of the people and would now have to present a more positive image to voters and the public at large.

He also said that some elements of a post-mortem would be brought to coalition partners at the BN convention scheduled for next month.

‘But we already know some of the features and sources of the defeat,’ he concluded.

Malaysia: Opposition Gains Momentum ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags on January 20, 2009 by ckchew

Summary

Malaysia’s opposition movement scored a victory on Jan. 17 when Mohammad Abdul Wahid Endut won a by-election in Kuala Terengganu. The opposition continues to gain momentum in its bid to defeat the coalition that has dominated Malaysian politics for five decades.

Analysis

Malaysia’s opposition movement made gains Jan. 17 when Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) candidate Mohammad Abdul Wahid Endut won a by-election in Kuala Terengganu, the capital city of Terengganu state in the peninsular northeast. The region is part of the Malay heartland, and the election was seen as a litmus test for the opposition’s progress since making massive gains in general elections in March 2008.

The opposition is challenging the status quo that has been in place since Malaysia earned its independence from the United Kingdom in 1957. The country’s politics have been ruled for the past 50 years by the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the largest political party, and the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition it founded to dominate parliament. The PAS, the Islamist party, has contended with the secular Malaysian leadership before, but lost support after being branded as having connections to terrorism. Recently, however, the PAS has joined up with the movement led by Anwar Ibrahim, once a high-ranking figure in the UMNO. Anwar has formed a shaky alliance, called Pakatan Rakyat, with Islamist voters and with ethnic Chinese. He has pledged to eliminate policies that enforce the deeply embedded privilege of the Malay majority.

When the opposition made great strides in elections in March 2008, it rattled the ruling coalition. Anwar, in exile at the time, made a dramatic return to the political scene and claimed that, by September 2008, he would form his own government and topple the ruling parties. Yet his self-imposed deadline came and went without seeing a swell of support for him among middle-of-the-road parliamentarians. Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi then volunteered to step down to placate some of the rising criticism of the government, stealing Anwar’s thunder. Anwar was seen as having overextended himself.

But fractures in Malaysian politics continue to weaken the ruling party, and Anwar and his allies are exploiting the growing dissatisfaction among the public, which has been exacerbated by the global economic slowdown. The Kuala Terengganu by-election was seen as crucial because the region is part of the Malay heartland on the peninsula, and was once a BN stronghold. The BN held onto power there in the previous election, but by a mere 628 votes out of 65,809 votes. On Jan. 17 — just 10 months after that election — voters gave the PAS a 2,631-vote lead out of 63,967 votes. The poll results show that support for the ruling coalition is lukewarm, as voter turnout was two percentage points lower than that in March 2008. Also, the results show that Anwar’s alliance of Islamist, Chinese and secular Malays is holding together (despite many differences), and that Anwar has switched from hare to tortoise, adopting a slow and steady strategy of attempting to overtake the ruling coalition.

Now the BN will attempt to counter the opposition’s win. The coalition is scheduled to hold a major gathering in March to name Najib Razak as its new leader and as the country’s new prime minister after Abdullah steps down. The event will give the BN occasion to present itself as rejuvenated. There is plenty of time for the politicking to play out until the next general elections in 2013, though a snap election could be called this year if the government thinks it can benefit from doing so. But the Kuala Terengganu by-election, though small, is an unmistakable sign that the opposition is gaining momentum — and this will mean increasing political instability as the government attempts to fend off its opponents.

Kuala Terengganu pengaruhi kemenangan Pro Mahasiswa ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Malaysia news with tags on January 20, 2009 by ckchew

KUALA LUMPUR, 20 Januari (SK)- Pilihanraya Kecil Kuala Terengganu menjadi faktor KEMENANGAN kumpulan pro-Mahasiswa dan calon bebas dalam pilihanraya kampus, Universiti Malaya. Menurut Presiden Pro Mahasiswa, Norazali Zainuddin kesedaran mahasiswa yang prihatin tentang politik luar telah membuatkan pro-Mahasiswa berjaya memenangi pilihanraya berkenaan.

“Perubahan politik luar bermula dengan pilihanraya umum ke 12 seterusnya pindaan Auku dan slogan perubahan yang dilaungkan Presiden Amerika, Barak Obama serta polihanraya kecil Kuala Terengganu membawa peribahan kepada mahasiswa,” katanya kepada Suara Keadilan Online dalam sidang media tengah hari tadi.

Menurutnya lagi, selain isu itu, kegagalan aspirasi ketika memimpin turut menjadi isu. Menurut kumpulan Pro Mahasiswa, Aspirasi gagal memegang amanah rakyat dengan kurang mengadakan aktiviti atau program ilmiah. “5 tahun Aspirasi memegang tampuk Majlis Perwakilan Mahasiswa Universiti Malaya (MPMUM), mahasiswa hanya dihidangkan dengan hiburan yang melalaikan pemikiran mereka,” katanya lagi.

Jesteru, menurut mereka, mahasiswa merasa tercabar dengan keadaan ini dan bangkit menentang segala korupsi dan penyelewengan yang berlaku selama ini.

“Kekalahan demi kekalah yang kami hadapi setiap tahun selama 5 tahun ini mematangkan lagi aktivis mahasiswa dalam mendepani pilihanraya kampus,” katanya lagi.

Dalam pilihanraya kampus UM, Pro Mahasiswa menang lapan daripada sembilan kerusi umum dan 13 daripada 32 kerusi fakulti. Calon bebas memenangi dua kerusi fakulti. Lapan calon pro-Mahasiswa yang menang kerusi umum ialah:

Mohamad Hafiz Ilyas. Ahmad Syazwan Mohd Hassan. Mohamad Ridzuan Mohammad. Nurul Fitrah Mohd Ariffin Marican. Chong Yah Huei. Shah Rizul Ayuni Zulkiply. Low Yu Jie. Yap Zhehn Jun. Manakala satu lagi kerusi umum dimenangi oleh calon pro-Aspirasi.

Menurut keputusan diumumkan oleh Timbalan Naib Canselor (Hal Ehwal Pelajar dan Alumni UM), Prof Madya Datuk Dr Azarae Idris pada jam 3.30 pagi di Dewan Tunku Canselor (DTC) di UM, Mohamad Hafiz mendapat 5,999 undi, Ahmad Syazwan (5,886), Mohamad RIdzuan (5,474), Nurul Fitrah (5,425), Chong (5,041), Shah Rizul Ayuni (5,000), Low 4,847 dan Yap mendapat 4,683 undi.

Bagi kerusi fakulti pula, calon pro-Mahasiswa menang dua kerusi di Fakulti Undang-undang, Fakulti Pengajian Melayu (2), Akademi Pengajian Islam (2) dan masing-masing satu kerusi di Fakulti Perubatan, Fakulti Pergigian, Fakulti Perakaunan dan Perniagaan, Fakulti Pendidikan, Fakulti Sains, Fakulti Bahasa dan Linguistik dan Pusat Kebudayaan.

Selangor fights 30pc water hike, wants Syabas concession cancelled ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags on January 20, 2009 by ckchew
By Shannon Teoh and Debra Chong, The Malaysian Insider

The Selangor state government has signaled its intention to take on the federal government in a battle over water supply in the state after sending a letter to the Energy, Water and Communications Ministry asking for the 30-year concession agreement with Syarikat Bekalan Air Selangor (Syabas) to be terminated.

While the immediate concern is to block a 30 per cent hike in water tariffs come April, the actual ramifications may stretch into talks that have begun in earnest this week over the sale of water supply assets – water treatment plants, dams and pipelines – in the state to the Finance Ministry’s wholly-owned Pengurusan Aset Air Bhd (PAAB).

Under the concession agreement inked in 2005 between Syabas, the federal government and the Selangor government, periodical tariff hikes are provided for as long as Syabas meets certain conditions.

Energy, Water and Communications Minister Datuk Shaziman Abu Mansor recently said that “according to the National Audit Department’s estimates, Syabas could increase the tariff by 30 per cent although the agreement stated 37 per cent because the company had met almost all the conditions”.

This has left some 1.5 million consumers in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya facing the increase which may, however, be revoked and restructured if water assets are handed over to PAAB before the hike takes effect in April, according to Shaziman.

Under the Water Services Industry Act 2006, all water assets in Peninsular Malaysia must be transferred to PAAB with Malacca recently inking an RM889 million deal and Negri Sembilan following suit this afternoon.

But the letter sent by Menteri Besar Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim is a clear signal that the state government is not certain that this handover of assets will take place by the end of March and is now forcing the cancellation of the concession outside of the mechanism of asset transfer.

The situation could lead to a protracted legal battle and the state government will most certainly apply for an injunction to block any tariff hike until it is resolved.

Should it be successful in lifting the April deadline for the hike, it will give the Pakatan Rakyat government some breathing space to engage in the negotiations over the water assets deal.

Khalid confirmed when asked by The Malaysian Insider that he sent the letter at the end of December 2008 to challenge the concession agreement on the grounds of non-compliance by Syabas.

“The National Audit Department concluded that there were a lot of discrepancies that were not in accordance with the agreement.

“For example, the agreement said that they must give tender for projects so we can get the best price. Over RM600 million of projects were not tendered,” he said.

Sources also told The Malaysian Insider that a majority of projects were in fact, handed via direct negotiations and that total capital expenditure exceeded the approved amount.

Khalid also added that Shaziman’s “most” is not good enough and that “Syabas is getting a free ride.”

Several factors are standing in the way of a smooth transfer of water assets to the federal government, chief among them being the discrepancy in “fair exit value” for private companies who own about 20 per cent of the assets.

One of the asset owners, Puncak Niaga, also owns 70 per cent of Syabas, and has an obvious vested interest in prolonging negotiations and activating the tariff hike.

Khalid clearly hinted at issues with differing valuations when he told The Malaysian Insider that if the deal is “done at a fair price, the concept of a 30 per cent increase may be unnecessary.” MI

Khazanah portfolio value drops by 20 per cent, yet “our economy fundamental is strong” ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in economy with tags on January 19, 2009 by ckchew
By Lee Wei Lian

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 19 – The global financial crisis has caused Khazanah Nasional Berhad’s realisable asset value (RAV) to drop 20 per cent by the end of last year, from RM88.2 billion at 31st May 2008 to RM70.4 billion at 31st December.

Net worth of Khazanah portfolio companies dropped from RM53.1 billion to RM33.7 billion during the same period.

Khazanah says that 2008 was a difficult year financially which is in line with sharp declines in asset values globally and domestically.

Total shareholder return of the listed portfolio declined 35.7 per cent in 2008, broadly in line with the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) drop of 36.2 per cent and outperforming several regional indices that declined between 39 per cent and 61 per cent in 2008.

Khazanah does not report its profit and losses but Tan Sri Dato’ Azman Mokhtar, its managing director reveals that it made a profit in 2007 and should make a profit in 2008. He declined to give a profit forecast for 2009.

He said this at Khazanah’s Fifth Annual Review at its office at the Petronas Twin Towers today.

He emphasised that Khazanah’s financial position remains strong with assets over liabilities of 1.9 times.

He points out that GLCs under Khazanah have also significantly strengthened fundamentals such as earnings, cash flows and dividends over the last four and half years. On Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB)’s announcement of a RM1 billion loss, he says that it was due to foreign exchange losses and higher coal prices and a drop in demand for power from the manufacturing sector.

Khazanah is proceeding with its long term commitment toward progressive divestment of its holdings and locked in gains of RM7.8 billion from five major divestments and two major monetisations in the last 19 months.

The monetisations were through the issuance of exchangeable sukuks in PLUS Highways Bhd and Parkson Retail Group Ltd.

The major divestments were in RHB, Lippo Bank and Excelcomindo.

‘We have a long term programme to divest especially legacy companies. We are also open to acquiring more companies and taking some private.’

Focus for new investments will be on service industries and those that raise employability.

Azman also hinted that more bold transformational moves along the lines of the split of Telekom Malaysia Berhad into Telekom Malaysia and TM International Bhd and the creation of the enlarged Sime Darby are in store.

‘A few more such transformations are in the pipeline. However, the market is choppy so we have a bit of breathing room.’

For the coming year, Khazanah’s strategy is to focus on crisis preparedness while at the same time catalyse economic growth with a focus on domestic investments that will offer a high multiplier effect.

It will also continue efforts to to build for the future and institutionalise through initiatives such as human capital development, scholarships through Yayasan Khazanah and its Khazanah Global Lectures series.

Crisis preparedness measures include stress testing GLCs and Azman says that most can handle the crisis under expected circumstances but a few could go into the ‘intensive care unit’ or ICU.

He declined to name which companies were the ones who could end up in the ICU.

He added that Khazanah has put in place a ‘war room’ to monitor the crisis.

GLC KPIs for 2009 have been finalised and will be announced in March together with the 2008 KPI performance. Azman says that it will be a challenge to meet KPIs for 2008.

On the political changes taking place in Malaysia and elsewhere in the world, Azman says that political transitions in the US will affect Khazanah indirectly but at home, he sees continuity. ‘We don’t see major changes,’ he says.

He also says that TM International may be selling new shares in a rights offer to help repay up to RM2 billion of the RM4 billion it owes Telekom Malaysia Berhad and that Khazanah will play a part in raising the funds.

MB Nafi Gunakan Peruntukan KDEB Beli Toyota Lexus ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in PKR with tags , on January 19, 2009 by ckchew

SHAH ALAM, 14 Januari – Dato’ Menteri Besar Selangor, Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim hari ini menafikan dakwaan yang mengatakan beliau menggunakan peruntukan Kumpulan Darul Ehsan Berhad (KDEB) untuk membeli sebuah Toyota Lexus bagi kegunaan peribadi.

Menurut beliau dakwaan yang dibuat bekas Menteri Besar, Dato’ Seri Dr Mohamad Khir Toyo itu sengaja diada-adakan.

“Lexus itu kepunyaaan saya sendiri dan saya membelinya sebelum pilihan raya lalu dan adalah cukup bodoh untuk membuat kenyataan seperti itu. Pihak berkenaan perlu teliti semula fakta yang sebenarnya,” katanya yang lebih gemar menggunakan kenderaan sendiri untuk urusan rasmi kerajaan.

Abdul Khalid berkata kenderaan yang dibelinya pada Julai 2007 itu turut digunakan semasa kempen pilihan raya umum Mac lalu sewaktu beliau menjadi calon bagi kerusi Ijok dan Bandar Tun Razak.

Tambahnya, adalah mustahil beliau menggunakan peruntukan KDEB untuk membeli kenderaan terbabit memandangkan beliau sudah menggunakannya sebelum beliau menjadi Menteri Besar lagi.

Katanya, walaupun pernah menjadi pengerusi di beberapa syarikat dan ditawarkan kenderaan syarikat, beliau menolak kerana lebih gemar menggunakan kenderaan milik sendiri.

“Prinsip saya, jika ada kenderaan sendiri, adalah lebih baik kita gunakannya,” katanya.

Abdul Khalid berkata beliau tidak pernah menyalah gunakan peruntukan KDEB untuk tujuan peribadi.

Dalam perkembangan lain, Abdul Khalid turut ditanya berhubung cadangan pembinaan kampus Universiti Antarabangsa Al-Madinah (Mediu) di Cyberjaya.

Beliau berkata pihaknya masih membincangkan cadangan itu.

“Kita menyokong cadangan ini namun belum memutuskan sama ada untuk memberikan tanah atau tidak kerana ia membabitkan tanah kerajaan negeri dan perlu melalui beberapa prosedur tertentu,” katanya.

Beliau berkata demikian dalam sidang media selepas mempengerusikan mesyuarat mingguan Majlis Mesyuarat Kerajaan Negeri (MMKN) petang tadi. – MURIZA ABDUL HAMID

SK

China’s Charter 08 – In Support of prominent dissident Liu Xiaobo

Posted in Critical Thinking with tags , , on January 19, 2009 by ckchew

I. FOREWORD

A hundred years have passed since the writing of China’s first constitution. 2008 also marks the sixtieth anniversary of the promulgation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the thirtieth anniversary of the appearance of the Democracy Wall in Beijing, and the tenth of China’s signing of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. We are approaching the twentieth anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen massacre of pro-democracy student protesters. The Chinese people, who have endured human rights disasters and uncountable struggles across these same years, now include many who see clearly that freedom, equality, and human rights are universal values of humankind and that democracy and constitutional government are the fundamental framework for protecting these values.

By departing from these values, the Chinese government’s approach to “modernization” has proven disastrous. It has stripped people of their rights, destroyed their dignity, and corrupted normal human intercourse. So we ask: Where is China headed in the twenty-first century? Will it continue with “modernization” under authoritarian rule, or will it embrace universal human values, join the mainstream of civilized nations, and build a democratic system? There can be no avoiding these questions.

The shock of the Western impact upon China in the nineteenth century laid bare a decadent authoritarian system and marked the beginning of what is often called “the greatest changes in thousands of years” for China. A “self-strengthening movement” followed, but this aimed simply at appropriating the technology to build gunboats and other Western material objects. China’s humiliating naval defeat at the hands of Japan in 1895 only confirmed the obsolescence of China’s system of government. The first attempts at modern political change came with the ill-fated summer of reforms in 1898, but these were cruelly crushed by ultraconservatives at China’s imperial court. With the revolution of 1911, which inaugurated Asia’s first republic, the authoritarian imperial system that had lasted for centuries was finally supposed to have been laid to rest. But social conflict inside our country and external pressures were to prevent it; China fell into a patchwork of warlord fiefdoms and the new republic became a fleeting dream.

The failure of both “self- strengthening” and political renovation caused many of our forebears to reflect deeply on whether a “cultural illness” was afflicting our country. This mood gave rise, during the May Fourth Movement of the late 1910s, to the championing of “science and democracy.” Yet that effort, too, foundered as warlord chaos persisted and the Japanese invasion [beginning in Manchuria in 1931] brought national crisis.

Victory over Japan in 1945 offered one more chance for China to move toward modern government, but the Communist defeat of the Nationalists in the civil war thrust the nation into the abyss of totalitarianism. The “new China” that emerged in 1949 proclaimed that “the people are sovereign” but in fact set up a system in which “the Party is all-powerful.” The Communist Party of China seized control of all organs of the state and all political, economic, and social resources, and, using these, has produced a long trail of human rights disasters, including, among many others, the Anti-Rightist Campaign (1957), the Great Leap Forward (1958–1960), the Cultural Revolution (1966–1969), the June Fourth [Tiananmen Square] Massacre (1989), and the current repression of all unauthorized religions and the suppression of the weiquan rights movement [a movement that aims to defend citizens' rights promulgated in the Chinese Constitution and to fight for human rights recognized by international conventions that the Chinese government has signed]. During all this, the Chinese people have paid a gargantuan price. Tens of millions have lost their lives, and several generations have seen their freedom, their happiness, and their human dignity cruelly trampled.

During the last two decades of the twentieth century the government policy of “Reform and Opening” gave the Chinese people relief from the pervasive poverty and totalitarianism of the Mao Zedong era, and brought substantial increases in the wealth and living standards of many Chinese as well as a partial restoration of economic freedom and economic rights. Civil society began to grow, and popular calls for more rights and more political freedom have grown apace. As the ruling elite itself moved toward private ownership and the market economy, it began to shift from an outright rejection of “rights” to a partial acknowledgment of them.

In 1998 the Chinese government signed two important international human rights conventions; in 2004 it amended its constitution to include the phrase “respect and protect human rights”; and this year, 2008, it has promised to promote a “national human rights action plan.” Unfortunately most of this political progress has extended no further than the paper on which it is written. The political reality, which is plain for anyone to see, is that China has many laws but no rule of law; it has a constitution but no constitutional government. The ruling elite continues to cling to its authoritarian power and fights off any move toward political change.

The stultifying results are endemic official corruption, an undermining of the rule of law, weak human rights, decay in public ethics, crony capitalism, growing inequality between the wealthy and the poor, pillage of the natural environment as well as of the human and historical environments, and the exacerbation of a long list of social conflicts, especially, in recent times, a sharpening animosity between officials and ordinary people.

As these conflicts and crises grow ever more intense, and as the ruling elite continues with impunity to crush and to strip away the rights of citizens to freedom, to property, and to the pursuit of happiness, we see the powerless in our society—the vulnerable groups, the people who have been suppressed and monitored, who have suffered cruelty and even torture, and who have had no adequate avenues for their protests, no courts to hear their pleas—becoming more militant and raising the possibility of a violent conflict of disastrous proportions. The decline of the current system has reached the point where change is no longer optional.

II. OUR FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES

This is a historic moment for China, and our future hangs in the balance. In reviewing the political modernization process of the past hundred years or more, we reiterate and endorse basic universal values as follows:

Freedom. Freedom is at the core of universal human values. Freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly, freedom of association, freedom in where to live, and the freedoms to strike, to demonstrate, and to protest, among others, are the forms that freedom takes. Without freedom, China will always remain far from civilized ideals.

Human rights. Human rights are not bestowed by a state. Every person is born with inherent rights to dignity and freedom. The government exists for the protection of the human rights of its citizens. The exercise of state power must be authorized by the people. The succession of political disasters in China’s recent history is a direct consequence of the ruling regime’s disregard for human rights.

Equality. The integrity, dignity, and freedom of every person—regardless of social station, occupation, sex, economic condition, ethnicity, skin color, religion, or political belief—are the same as those of any other. Principles of equality before the law and equality of social, economic, cultural, civil, and political rights must be upheld.

Republicanism. Republicanism, which holds that power should be balanced among different branches of government and competing interests should be served, resembles the traditional Chinese political ideal of “fairness in all under heaven.” It allows different interest groups and social assemblies, and people with a variety of cultures and beliefs, to exercise democratic self-government and to deliberate in order to reach peaceful resolution of public questions on a basis of equal access to government and free and fair competition.

Democracy. The most fundamental principles of democracy are that the people are sovereign and the people select their government. Democracy has these characteristics: (1) Political power begins with the people and the legitimacy of a regime derives from the people. (2) Political power is exercised through choices that the people make. (3) The holders of major official posts in government at all levels are determined through periodic competitive elections. (4) While honoring the will of the majority, the fundamental dignity, freedom, and human rights of minorities are protected. In short, democracy is a modern means for achieving government truly “of the people, by the people, and for the people.”

Constitutional rule. Constitutional rule is rule through a legal system and legal regulations to implement principles that are spelled out in a constitution. It means protecting the freedom and the rights of citizens, limiting and defining the scope of legitimate government power, and providing the administrative apparatus necessary to serve these ends.

III. WHAT WE ADVOCATE

Authoritarianism is in general decline throughout the world; in China, too, the era of emperors and overlords is on the way out. The time is arriving everywhere for citizens to be masters of states. For China the path that leads out of our current predicament is to divest ourselves of the authoritarian notion of reliance on an “enlightened overlord” or an “honest official” and to turn instead toward a system of liberties, democracy, and the rule of law, and toward fostering the consciousness of modern citizens who see rights as fundamental and participation as a duty. Accordingly, and in a spirit of this duty as responsible and constructive citizens, we offer the following recommendations on national governance, citizens’ rights, and social development:

1. A New Constitution. We should recast our present constitution, rescinding its provisions that contradict the principle that sovereignty resides with the people and turning it into a document that genuinely guarantees human rights, authorizes the exercise of public power, and serves as the legal underpinning of China’s democratization. The constitution must be the highest law in the land, beyond violation by any individual, group, or political party.

2. Separation of Powers. We should construct a modern government in which the separation of legislative, judicial, and executive power is guaranteed. We need an Administrative Law that defines the scope of government responsibility and prevents abuse of administrative power. Government should be responsible to taxpayers. Division of power between provincial governments and the central government should adhere to the principle that central powers are only those specifically granted by the constitution and all other powers belong to the local governments.

3. Legislative Democracy. Members of legislative bodies at all levels should be chosen by direct election, and legislative democracy should observe just and impartial principles.

4. An Independent Judiciary. The rule of law must be above the interests of any particular political party and judges must be independent. We need to establish a constitutional supreme court and institute procedures for constitutional review. As soon as possible, we should abolish all of the Committees on Political and Legal Affairs that now allow Communist Party officials at every level to decide politically sensitive cases in advance and out of court. We should strictly forbid the use of public offices for private purposes.

5. Public Control of Public Servants. The military should be made answerable to the national government, not to a political party, and should be made more professional. Military personnel should swear allegiance to the constitution and remain nonpartisan. Political party organizations must be prohibited in the military. All public officials including police should serve as nonpartisans, and the current practice of favoring one political party in the hiring of public servants must end.

6. Guarantee of Human Rights. There must be strict guarantees of human rights and respect for human dignity. There should be a Human Rights Committee, responsible to the highest legislative body, that will prevent the government from abusing public power in violation of human rights. A democratic and constitutional China especially must guarantee the personal freedom of citizens. No one should suffer illegal arrest, detention, arraignment, interrogation, or punishment. The system of “Reeducation through Labor” must be abolished.

7. Election of Public Officials. There should be a comprehensive system of democratic elections based on “one person, one vote.” The direct election of administrative heads at the levels of county, city, province, and nation should be systematically implemented. The rights to hold periodic free elections and to participate in them as a citizen are inalienable.

8. Rural–Urban Equality. The two-tier household registry system must be abolished. This system favors urban residents and harms rural residents. We should establish instead a system that gives every citizen the same constitutional rights and the same freedom to choose where to live.

9. Freedom to Form Groups. The right of citizens to form groups must be guaranteed. The current system for registering nongovernment groups, which requires a group to be “approved,” should be replaced by a system in which a group simply registers itself. The formation of political parties should be governed by the constitution and the laws, which means that we must abolish the special privilege of one party to monopolize power and must guarantee principles of free and fair competition among political parties.

10. Freedom to Assemble. The constitution provides that peaceful assembly, demonstration, protest, and freedom of expression are fundamental rights of a citizen. The ruling party and the government must not be permitted to subject these to illegal interference or unconstitutional obstruction.

11. Freedom of Expression. We should make freedom of speech, freedom of the press, and academic freedom universal, thereby guaranteeing that citizens can be informed and can exercise their right of political supervision. These freedoms should be upheld by a Press Law that abolishes political restrictions on the press. The provision in the current Criminal Law that refers to “the crime of incitement to subvert state power” must be abolished. We should end the practice of viewing words as crimes.

12. Freedom of Religion. We must guarantee freedom of religion and belief, and institute a separation of religion and state. There must be no governmental interference in peaceful religious activities. We should abolish any laws, regulations, or local rules that limit or suppress the religious freedom of citizens. We should abolish the current system that requires religious groups (and their places of worship) to get official approval in advance and substitute for it a system in which registry is optional and, for those who choose to register, automatic.

13. Civic Education. In our schools we should abolish political curriculums and examinations that are designed to indoctrinate students in state ideology and to instill support for the rule of one party. We should replace them with civic education that advances universal values and citizens’ rights, fosters civic consciousness, and promotes civic virtues that serve society.

14. Protection of Private Property. We should establish and protect the right to private property and promote an economic system of free and fair markets. We should do away with government monopolies in commerce and industry and guarantee the freedom to start new enterprises. We should establish a Committee on State-Owned Property, reporting to the national legislature, that will monitor the transfer of state-owned enterprises to private ownership in a fair, competitive, and orderly manner. We should institute a land reform that promotes private ownership of land, guarantees the right to buy and sell land, and allows the true value of private property to be adequately reflected in the market.

15. Financial and Tax Reform. We should establish a democratically regulated and accountable system of public finance that ensures the protection of taxpayer rights and that operates through legal procedures. We need a system by which public revenues that belong to a certain level of government—central, provincial, county or local—are controlled at that level. We need major tax reform that will abolish any unfair taxes, simplify the tax system, and spread the tax burden fairly. Government officials should not be able to raise taxes, or institute new ones, without public deliberation and the approval of a democratic assembly. We should reform the ownership system in order to encourage competition among a wider variety of market participants.

16. Social Security. We should establish a fair and adequate social security system that covers all citizens and ensures basic access to education, health care, retirement security, and employment.

17. Protection of the Environment. We need to protect the natural environment and to promote development in a way that is sustainable and responsible to our descendants and to the rest of humanity. This means insisting that the state and its officials at all levels not only do what they must do to achieve these goals, but also accept the supervision and participation of nongovernmental organizations.

18. A Federated Republic. A democratic China should seek to act as a responsible major power contributing toward peace and development in the Asian Pacific region by approaching others in a spirit of equality and fairness. In Hong Kong and Macao, we should support the freedoms that already exist. With respect to Taiwan, we should declare our commitment to the principles of freedom and democracy and then, negotiating as equals and ready to compromise, seek a formula for peaceful unification. We should approach disputes in the national-minority areas of China with an open mind, seeking ways to find a workable framework within which all ethnic and religious groups can flourish. We should aim ultimately at a federation of democratic communities of China.

19. Truth in Reconciliation. We should restore the reputations of all people, including their family members, who suffered political stigma in the political campaigns of the past or who have been labeled as criminals because of their thought, speech, or faith. The state should pay reparations to these people. All political prisoners and prisoners of conscience must be released. There should be a Truth Investigation Commission charged with finding the facts about past injustices and atrocities, determining responsibility for them, upholding justice, and, on these bases, seeking social reconciliation.

China, as a major nation of the world, as one of five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, and as a member of the UN Council on Human Rights, should be contributing to peace for humankind and progress toward human rights. Unfortunately, we stand today as the only country among the major nations that remains mired in authoritarian politics. Our political system continues to produce human rights disasters and social crises, thereby not only constricting China’s own development but also limiting the progress of all of human civilization. This must change, truly it must. The democratization of Chinese politics can be put off no longer.

Accordingly, we dare to put civic spirit into practice by announcing Charter 08. We hope that our fellow citizens who feel a similar sense of crisis, responsibility, and mission, whether they are inside the government or not, and regardless of their social status, will set aside small differences to embrace the broad goals of this citizens’ movement. Together we can work for major changes in Chinese society and for the rapid establishment of a free, democratic, and constitutional country. We can bring to reality the goals and ideals that our people have incessantly been seeking for more than a hundred years, and can bring a brilliant new chapter to Chinese civilization.

POSTSCRIPT

The planning and drafting of Charter 08 began in the late spring of 2008, but Chinese authorities were apparently unaware of it or unconcerned by it until several days before it was announced on December 10. On December 6, Wen Kejian, a writer who signed the charter, was detained in the city of Hangzhou in eastern China and questioned for about an hour. Police told Wen that Charter 08 was “different” from earlier dissident statements, and “a fairly grave matter.” They said there would be a coordinated investigation in all cities and provinces to “root out the organizers,” and they advised Wen to remove his name from the charter. Wen declined, telling the authorities that he saw the charter as a fundamental turning point in history.

Meanwhile, on December 8, in Shenzhen in the far south of China, police called on Zhao Dagong, a writer and signer of the charter, for a “chat.” They told Zhao that the central authorities were concerned about the charter and asked if he was the organizer in the Shenzhen area.

Later on December 8, at 11 PM in Beijing, about twenty police entered the home of Zhang Zuhua, one of the charter’s main drafters. A few of the police took Zhang with them to the local police station while the rest stayed and, as Zhang’s wife watched, searched the home and confiscated books, notebooks, Zhang’s passport, all four of the family’s computers, and all of their cash and credit cards. (Later Zhang learned that his family’s bank accounts, including those of both his and his wife’s parents, had been emptied.) Meanwhile, at the police station, Zhang was detained for twelve hours, where he was questioned in detail about Charter 08 and the group Chinese Human Rights Defenders in which he is active.

It was also late on December 8 that another of the charter’s signers, the literary critic and prominent dissident Liu Xiaobo, was taken away by police. His telephone in Beijing went unanswered, as did e-mail and Skype messages sent to him. As of the present writing, he’s believed to be in police custody, although the details of his detention are not known.

On the morning of December 9, Beijing lawyer Pu Zhiqiang was called in for a police “chat,” and in the evening the physicist and philosopher Jiang Qisheng was called in as well. Both had signed the charter and were friends of the drafters. On December 10—the day the charter was formally announced—the Hangzhou police returned to the home of Wen Kejian, the writer they had questioned four days earlier. This time they were more threatening. They told Wen he would face severe punishment if he wrote about the charter or about Liu Xiaobo’s detention. “Do you want three years in prison?” they asked. “Or four?”

On December 11 the journalist Gao Yu and the writer Liu Di, both well-known in Beijing, were interrogated about their signing of the Charter. The rights lawyer, Teng Biao, was approached by the police but declined, on principle, to meet with them. On December 12 and 13 there were reports of interrogations in many provinces—Shaanxi, Hunan, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and others—of people who had seen the charter on the Internet, found that they agreed with it, and signed. With these people the police focused on two questions: “How did you get involved?” and “What do you know about the drafters and organizers?”

The Chinese authorities seem unaware of the irony of their actions. Their efforts to quash Charter 08 only serve to underscore China’s failure to uphold the very principles that the charter advances. The charter calls for “free expression” but the regime says, by its actions, that it has once again denied such expression. The charter calls for freedom to form groups, but the nationwide police actions that have accompanied the charter’s release have specifically aimed at blocking the formation of a group. The charter says “we should end the practice of viewing words as crimes,” and the regime says (literally, to Wen Kejian) “we can send you to prison for these words.” The charter calls for the rule of law and the regime sends police in the middle of the night to act outside the law; the charter says “police should serve as nonpartisans,” and here the police are plainly partisan.

Charter 08 is signed only by citizens of the People’s Republic of China who are living inside China. But Chinese living outside China are signing a letter of strong support for the charter. The eminent historian Yu Ying-shih, the astrophysicist Fang Lizhi, writers Ha Jin and Zheng Yi, and more than 160 others have so far signed.

On December 12, the Dalai Lama issued his own letter in support of the charter, writing that “a harmonious society can only come into being when there is trust among the people, freedom from fear, freedom of expression, rule of law, justice, and equality.” He called on the Chinese government to release prisoners “who have been detained for exercising their freedom of expression.”

Poll watchdog howls foul over ‘vote-buying’

Posted in Malaysia news with tags , on January 19, 2009 by ckchew

Malaysiakini

An election watchdog today claimed that vote-buying was prevalent in the run-up to Saturday’s Kuala Terengganu parliamentary by-election.

MCPX

The National Institute for Electoral Integrity (NIEI) also highlighted the abuse of government machinery and complained about the overwhelming presence of police personnel.

NIEI chairperson Yunus Ali, in lamenting that corruption had become institutionalised, said voters in Kuala Terengganu were given cash as inducements.

kuala terengganu by election indirect bribesto fish for votes“RM300 and RM250 goodwill money were given to adults and youths respectively, while Chinese voters received RM300 ‘ang pow’ for the upcoming Chinese New Year celebrations,” he said in a statement.

“Even journalists were not spared. A day before polling, journalists at the media centre were given RM300 each. Two weeks earlier, the journalists were given raincoats worth RM98,” he added.

Following a police report by two journalists, Barisan Nasional candidate Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh denied having anything to do with the matter.

In addition, Yunus said there was also an avalanche of “indirect bribes” to fish for votes. (see chart)

As for the abuse of government machinery, the watchdog stated, among others, the use of the Menteri Besar’s office and Public Works Department vehicles for a ground-breaking ceremony.

Yunus also cited Kuala Terengganu mayor and election returning officer Mat Razali Kassim for allegedly threatening his staff to vote for BN. Mat Razali later resigned as returning officer over the controversy.

Who is paying?

Yunus also pointed out that numerous ministries, ministers and state leaders, both from Barisan Nasional and the opposition, were involved in the campaign.

“The question is, on whose expense were they campaigning in Kuala Terengganu?” he asked.

Meanwhile, Yunus said corruption was also seen in the form of free newspapers being distributed to the people and the number of concerts being held.

“PAS was also found to have violated election ethics by giving out free wheelchairs, free haircuts as well as free consultation with a homeopathy specialist,” he added.

On the overwhelming police presence, Yunus said this gave the impression that the area was a war zone and left the people feeling uneasy over the massive deployment.

Calling for an end to corrupt practices, he said: “The Election Act must be amended to prevent corruption as a means to purchase votes.”

“Kuala Terengganu voters have displayed their maturity, with the majority proving they will not fall for such candies,” he added.

BN failed to retain the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat when its candidate lost to Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut of PAS by 2,631 votes while independent candidate Azharudin Mamat @ Adam polled 193 votes to lose his deposit.

Now everyone can fly … with Selangor Exco ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat, PKR with tags , on January 19, 2009 by ckchew
By Neville Spykerman

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 19 – Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim and his exco members took frugality to new heights by flying to and from Alor Setar with Air Asia.

The Selangor delegation had flown to Kedah to attend the conference of Pakatan Rakyat (PR) chief ministers and leaders on Sunday and were spotted by The Malaysian Insider at the Sultan Abdul Halim Airport waiting to board the return flight this morning.

With the Selangor Menteri Besar were exco members Datuk Dr Hassan Ali, Teresa Kok, Elizabeth Wong, Yaakob Sapari, Khalid’s political secretary Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad and Subang Member of Parliament Sivarasa Rasiah.

The group was seated at the boarding lounge, with other passengers waiting to board Air Asia flight Ak6347 to Kuala Lumpur, with no fanfare or fuss.

So unassuming was Khalid, dressed casually in a black-and-red chequered shirt and blue slacks, that most passengers did not realise he was the Selangor MB.

Nik Nazmi said although they were flying with the low-cost carrier, the state government had at least paid for express boarding for them.

However this came to nought as they were left at the end of the queue while other passengers rushed to board first.

The frugal attitude of the state government at these time of economic uncertainties will surely endear these leaders to the people, while bringing a smile to the face of Air Asia boss, Datuk Tony Fernandes. MI

Brickbats continue to pour in for Najib ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Malaysia news with tags , on January 19, 2009 by ckchew

Right from the start, the KT by-election was regarded as a test of the extent and strength of Najib’s leadership over the Malays – the country’s largest ethnic group.

But he has stumbled, despite personal effort. As the unforgiving political wheels continue to roll, his fate is on the line, and what unfolds over the next few weeks will have great bearing not only for Umno, but also the entire nation …

By Wong Choon Mei, SK

Even as his supporters try to defend him, the brickbats continued to pour in for Deputy Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, who personally directed the parliamentary by-election in Kuala Terengganu, but still lost to Pakatan Rakyat despite unleashing a never-before-seen avalanche of election goodies and lures.

Political watchers today scoffed at comments from a slew of supporters including the latest from Umno deputy president aspirant, Muhyiddin Yassin.

Muhyiddin, who is also Minister of International Trade and Industry, skirted around the issue of why his party lost despite putting in so much effort, merely blaming it on the fact that Umno has still not changed since the March 2008 general election.

He also said Najib, as incoming Umno president, would need to perform “political surgery”, but did not say where – at the top, the middle or the bottom?

“Umno has not changed since the March general election. Plans made after the big loss have not been operationalised all the way down,” said Muhuyiddin.

“The people want radical improvements after what happened in the last election. We must be able to do something that would attract the public. Incoming Umno president, Najib, will have to perform political surgery.”

However, Muhyiddin failed to convince political veterans, who said his comments bore little meaning and were instead reflective of the overall ‘state of denial’ of the party and the 14-member Barisan Nasional coalition that it leads.

“There’s nothing new with Muhyiddin’s comments and this is the problem with Umno. Who doesn’t know it has to change, but can it and will it really do so? Even now Muhyiddin is just trying to blame KT on everyone else other than himself and those who he perceives to be his political patrons – such as Najib,” said a veteran political observer.

“But change has to come from the top first, not the middle or bottom. From the top first, then all the way down. In the first place, the choice of Najib as Umno president wasn’t a choice for change, but a vote for the same old regime of elitist corruption. So, how can Umno change?

“This is why the Malays in KT swung to PAS and the Pakatan, because they know there won’t be change in Umno come March. And if Umno doesn’t change, neither will BN.”

Brickbats continue to rain down on Najib’s parade

Muhyiddin hit the political limelight last year after leading a mutiny of sorts against Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi last September.

Together he and supporters of Najib manoeuvred Abdullah into accepting responsibility for the Umno-BN’s poor performance in last year’s general election, and pushed him into accepting early retirement in March.

Such a move, they argued, would stabilise Umno and restore voters’ confidence in the BN – the coalition that has ruled the country since independence from British rule in 1957.

Knocked out in October, the power succession plan helped Najib to coast to the Umno presidency uncontested a month later.

However, as KT shows, that has not stopped the party’s losing streak.

“The party is no longer salvageable; Umno is now beyond redemption. Its leaders and members are incapable of appreciating and thus adapting to the profound changes now gripping the nation,” wrote prominent political writer M Bakri Musa.

“In this by-election Umno resorted to its old corrupt ways that had served it well in the past. There were the sudden announcements of generous public funds to key constituent groups as well as the usual co-opting of government agencies to do Barisan’s bidding. If those tricks were not enough, there was the literal stuffing of envelopes with cold cash for voters and reporters.

“The victory by PAS candidate Wahid Endut is even more impressive considering that future Prime Minister Najib Razak literally made his temporary home in Kuala Trengganu during the entire 11 days of campaigning.

“Those voters viewed the upcoming transfer of power from Abdullah to Najib less a promise of better things and more a threat of the same tired corrupt and corrosive ways of the past. The political status quo would only further divide instead of bringing us together. Malaysians were rightly fed up with this,” Bakri added.

Said Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, Umno veteran and MP for Gua Musang in neighbouring Kelantan state:

“We lost because of Malay votes in a state whose government we control. We threw the national resources of a party in federal power at this election and still we lost. It was a test of the relevance of Umno in its present form. If Umno is no longer relevant to the Malays, the BN formula is dead.”

KT poll: Impact on Chinese voters

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , , , on January 19, 2009 by ckchew

Malaysiakini

analysis

MCPX

The Kuala Terengganu by-election was another victory to savour for the opposition Pakatan Rakyat, as a reminder of the ‘political tsunami’ it caused last March and the embedding of another seed toward an alternative government.

kuala terengganu by election pas candidate mohd abdul wahid endut win 32883On Saturday, Umno’s candidate Wan Ahmad Farid lost to Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut (left) of PAS, who clinched the parliamentary seat with a majority of 2,631 votes.

Many Malaysian urbanites were in joyous mood the morning after. In coffee shops, hawker stalls, shopping malls and homes, there was lively discussion of the impact and ramifications of the by-election results for the country’s political future.

There was little sympathy for Umno which had obviously received another slap in the face despite being able to call on the superior resources of the Barisan Nasional (BN) -  money, machinery, human resources – over the intensive 10-day intensive campaign.

Many urban Malays even see the outcome as reflecting the turning tide in the Malay heartland against the once powerful Umno hegemony.

“Umno can no longer claim to be the champion of the Malays,” said Hussein, 60, a newspaper vendor in Kampung Pandan, Kuala Lumpur.

Echoing the view, chartered accountant KS Goh, 58, of Pandan Desa said: “This is a victory for Anwar (Ibrahim) and Pakatan. It no longer matters whether Umno or MCA are in constant self-denial (in rationalising the loss of electoral support).

anwar kuala terenganu by election 070109 02“Only Anwar’s leadership could forge such a victory. Pakatan is on track (to be the alternative government), God willing.”

At the Pudu market, a hawker, who only wanted to be known as Chan, was obviously excited about the prospect of a two-party system.

“There is now a glimmer of hope in fighting corruption, abuse of power and totalitarian methods of political control,” said another hawker, who joined in the conversation.

But the honest outpouring of enthusiasm at the grassroots was in great contrast to those walking the corridors of power. Those in the BN leadership showed no regret over the loss of yet another parliamentary seat.

‘Don’t blame MCA’

Will MCA be content to wait for Umno to make more mistakes and eventually come to grief of its own accord? Until now, MCA has shown more interest in protecting its turf by rejecting any suggestions that it shares the blame for the defeat.

MCA has claimed that Chinese votes have increased in support of the Umno candidate in KT, particularly in the Chinese-majority polling districts.

According to party sources, Kampung Cina, Pejabat Bandaran, Paya Bunga, Pulau Kambing and Pantai Terengganu have shown higher Chinese electoral support for BN.

This is despite the fact that the final tally shows Pakatan has walked away with the majority vote in all four state seats within the parliamentary constituency.

Umno, in the old days, was known as the “unstoppable fighting” election machine. But the devastating losses for the BN last March has undermined confidence in that assertion even within the ruling coalition.

MCA, in particular, did not take it for granted that the KT by-election was a ‘sure-win’ situation for Umno and had begun raising its defence against potential apportioning of blame.

Just five days before polling day, MCA Youth chief Wee Ka Siong had said: “Umno should not blame MCA…in order to win, BN must get votes from all races.

“Mathematically, even if the 11 percent Chinese voters give their 100 percent support (to Umno’s candidate) but the rest (89 percent) cannot deliver, it will be the same result (losing the election). Finger-pointing is not the answer.”

On the same day, MCA secretary-general Wong Foon Meng evaded the issue saying, “as far as MCA is concerned, all the votes from the various communities are important”.

He also downplayed the perception that Chinese voters would play the role of king-maker, adding that “…in the event of BN losing the seat, you cannot say the Chinese factor contributed to that”.

Political observers have said that some 3,000 young Chinese voters did not return to vote in the by-election.

Umno implosion anticipated

Some analysts point out the Chinese factor will not be the only crucial factor in determining the outcome of the next general election.

Umno’s greatest enemy is its own leadership, which looks set to implode. Not only will it destroy itself, but it will bring down other component parties, particularly the MCA.

With Umno’s obstinacy over internal and electoral reform, there is genuine fear in MCA that the next political tsunami will be even more devastating – even leading to the likelihood of BN being wiped off the electoral map.

As far as the Chinese community is concerned, the writing is on the wall. Negative perceptions toward MCA or Umno will reach saturation point and the electorate will no longer care whether BN parties undertake leadership reform. If the Malay heartland finally abandons Umno, BN is as good as dead.

The influence of the Chinese factor via MCA is diminishing, as the community leans towards a stronger position in Pakatan.

They see MCA as incapable of changing Umno’s destiny, as it merely navigates its journey according to the whims and fancies of its political master.

Jian feng shi duo (sail the boat according to the wind) is a popular saying. If MCA only acts or reacts to Umno’s political wind, this will result in disaster for the party.

Impartial party watchers said the KT by-election has shown up BN’s underhanded tactics, arrogance and hypocrisy, while illustrating MCA’s subservience and silence on alleged widespread money politics during the campaign.

A popular Chinese idiom describes the BN’s campaign speeches as kong kou shuo bai hua (making empty promises) and kou shi xin fei (being insincere).

Other BN-coalition members could not care less whether the campaign was bankrupt of political wisdom and integrity, so long as they stumbled to a win.

“It no longer matters to them whether the campaign runs contrary to MCA’s politics, Chinese ethical-moral philosophy and Confucianism,” said a supporter, referring to allegations of money politics.

A teacher, well versed in the Chinese ‘art of war’, asked with sarcasm: “What is the use of (BN) having qian jun wan ma (1,000 soldiers and 1,000 horses)?

“When Pakatan raised its flag, the battle was won (qi kai de sheng, or victory was easily achieved). Money politics can no longer buy electoral victory or public trust and respect.”

He added that there is hope for the country now because there are conscientious voters among Malaysians irrespective of race.

Treat sexual slavery problem seriously, govt told

Posted in PKR with tags , , , on January 19, 2009 by ckchew

Malaysiakini

A Sarawak opposition leader has urged the police and relevant authorities to take the problems of sexual slavery and human trafficking in Malaysia seriously and not treat the victims as criminals.

MCPX

State PKR wanita chief Ibi Uding said care and protection for the victims should be looked into seriously as provided for under the Anti–Human Trafficking Act 2007.

In a statement to Malaysiakini, she said young women are being lured to leave their home countries, ending up in the sex trade abroad and forced to live in fear and humiliation amidst mental and physical abuse.

“The activities  totally destroy the lives of these women,” she added.

She said sexual slavery and human trafficking violate basic human rights and this form of commercial sexual exploitation is one of the most devastating and escalating practices of gender-based violence.

In Kuching , the Sunday Post on Jan 10 reported that eight foreign women were rescued from sexual slavery during a police raid on a house in Poh Kwong Park two days earlier.

Step up efforts

Commenting on this, Ibi Uding said she believes this is only the tip of the iceberg.

“Sexual slavery is one of the gravest forms of violence against women and PKR Wanita does not tolerate such forms of violence and exploitation and no society that purports to uphold gender equality should tolerate and accept the sexual commodification of women and girls,” she said.

Her deputy Nurhanim  Moksen said PKR Wanita wants the police to go all out in order to detect and smash the syndicates responsible for these crimes.

In June, the government classified human trafficking as a transnational crime and with statistics showing that 2.7 million people are trafficked worldwide annually with 80 percent of them being women and children.

“In view of the alarming statistics, PKR Wanita calls for serious efforts to be taken by the police and relevant authorities to detect, investigate and halt sexual slavery and human trafficking,” she said.

She also urged the relevant authorities to put in place a systemic response to cope with the rising cases.

After KT, there is hope for Sarawak

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat, PKR with tags , , , on January 19, 2009 by ckchew

Malaysiakini

“It looks like there is now hope for Sarawak.”

MCPX

This was the text of a SMS from a KL-based senior bank manager, a Lun Bawang, after reports on Saturday night that PAS had crushed the Barisan Nasional and won the Kuala Terengganu  parliamentary seat with a 2,631-vote majority in a by-election.

This would be the second win for the Pakatan Rakyat after the March 2008 general elections, confirming waning support for the country’s ruling coalition.

anwar and sarawak state electionThe Orang Ulu senior bank manager, a PKR supporter, was referring to PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim-led  Pakatan Rakyat’s (PKR/DAP/PAS) campaign already underway to wrest control of Sarawak from the BN in the next state elections due at the latest by 2011.

He said: “The KT result confirmed for the second time, after Permatang Pauh, that the wind of change that swept the country on March 13, 2008  is real and here to stay.”

“In fact it is gathering strength instead of dying out as the BN would hope!”

He added: “To the Sarawakians it says the moment of truth is now. It’s time the voters show (Chief Minister) Taib Mahmud the final curtain.”

There has been talk that long-serving Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud may call the state elections earlier.  Although he has publicly ruled out elections this year, many believe it will be to pave the way for his son Sulaiman, 39, the Samarahan MP and deputy tourism minister, to eventually take over from him.

‘Change in the making’

Almost without any exception local PKR party leaders and supporters said the Kuala Terengganu by-election result which many people had believed would be won by the BN would be a big boost to the morale of Pakatan Rakyat, believing it to reflect the national mood for change.

sarawak state seat 2006 breakdown 011208In its major roadshows so far in places like Kuching, Sibu and Miri, PKR has proclaimed that “Change We Can” and “Change in the Making” as their campaign theme in both urban and rural areas of Sarawak.

Sarawak has 71 state assembly seats , of which  eight are in the hands of the Opposition (DAP 6, PKR 2) and one Independent (pro-BN).

Senior leaders of state BN component parties Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and Sarawak United People’s Party(Supp) have already warned their BN colleagues to take the threat from Pakatan, especially PKR, seriously.

Even within Taib’s own party Parti Pesaka Bumiputera (PBB) some senior leaders – all Malays – have told the chief minister not to take the threat from PKR lightly.

But Taib doesn’t seem worried or seem to care, said several political observers.

PKR  has already penetrated far and deep into Dayak areas which represent a total of 28 state seats while DAP’s support among the Chinese, especially in the urban centres, is growing too.

This will be at the expense of largely SUPP. DAP’s six state assemblypersons won in urban areas, and political observers say DAP is likely to make greater impact the next round in more areas in central (Sibu) and northern (Miri) Sarawak regions.

DAP eyes Chinese majority areas

There are 17 Chinese majority and mixed state constituencies ,most of which are likely to be contested by DAP with a few going to PKR’s Chinese candidates.

The Malay/Melanau areas with a total of 25 state seats  are going to prove to be a tough nut to crack. Taib’s PBB has a strong hold on the Malay/Melanau seats.

But the vulnerable ones are said to be in and around Kuching ,in Simunjan, Gedong and Sibu, largely because of local issues and problems. In the last state elections, PAS lost narrowly in one of the Malay seats in the Simunjan area.

A combined Pakatan Rakyat campaign could have a significant impact, just as what has been seen in Permatang Pauh and Kuala Terengganu.

If the Pakatan Rakyat were to win also in Pensiangan (a by-election will be held if PBRS leader Joseph Kurup lost his appeal), that would further confirm a swing among the rural constituents towards the Opposition and spell big trouble for Sabah BN in the next general elections as well.

In Sarawak, the Opposition has played up to great effect, various issues regarding the growing disquiet over the land issue, Taib’s leadership, amassed wealth of top politicians in the state, cronyism, nepotism, corruption and marginalisation of various groups in business, civil service and other economic opportunities.

PKR will continue with its roadshows ahead of the state elections and will bring in their bigwigs, including Pakatan Rakyat’s chief minister and mentris besar, to meet the locals and give a boost to their local party leaders’ efforts to shore up support for their respective parties.

The three major dinner gatherings in Kuching, Sibu and Miri have attracted thousands to come and listen to such leaders as Anwar Ibrahim and Selangor Mentri Besar Khalid Ibrahim.

Other road shows will be held in other major towns in Sarawak with seminars in between to prepare party members for election work.

A senior party leader told Malaysiakini that they will expose their potential candidates at such gatherings and seminars to the grassroots. “We believe the state elections could be held this year and so we must be prepared,” he added.

As Wahid settles down to work in KT, Pakatan looks ahead while Umno-BN look for a scapegoat ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , on January 19, 2009 by ckchew

Change doesn’t happen just because you promise it will. It comes from within and from above. Firstly, you must have the ability to intellectualise and visualise reform, then conceptualise and formalise change. Voters – such as in KT – will intuitively know if you are for real or not

By Wong Choon Mei, SK

As the dust settles on Kuala Terengganu, and perhaps drowned by the panicked screams of the losing coalition looking for ways to shift blame, only a few remembered and sought to reassure the people of this pleasant and peaceful town that come what may – life can only improve.

Among them was Nik Aziz Nik Mat, the revered spiritual adviser of Pakatan Rakyat partner PAS.

“Don’t hurt the feelings of the opponents because if they are hurt, it will be difficult for us to convince them of our struggle,” said Nik Aziz, referring to the slew of election goodies, worth billions of ringgit, promised to the KT people by rival coalition – the Barisan Nasional.

The site of a parliamentary by-election contest polled last Saturday, the people of KT have been the centre of national attention the past two weeks.

The final choice of the people – Pakatan’s Wahid Endut, the KT chief of PAS – will not immediately alter the balance of power in the nation. Control of the federal government still lies in the hands of the Umno-led BN.

But the victory is an unmistakable signal that Malaysians want the brand of change and reform promised by Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim and his coalition.

“The victory is proof that the people are truly thirsting for change,” the charismatic 61-year old Anwar said.

“Wahid is a five-term Wakaf Mempelam assemblyperson. If he is not good, the people wouldn’t have voted for him,” said PAS president Hadi Awang, reiterating the party’s commitment to serve the KT people with sincerity and without fear.

Pakatan looks ahead

As Wahid settles down to work and normalcy returns to the serene, seaside town, the winds of change are beckoning Anwar and his Pakatan allies to go next to the Land of the Hornbills -  East Malaysia’s Sarawak state.

The similarities there run deep with KT. A rich state government, but swathes of poverty-stricken masses, who trail far behind their counterparts in Peninsular Malaysia in terms of education, job opportunities, infrastructure facilities and basic amenities.

The state government, currently led by BN Chief Minister Abdul Mahmud Taib, is due to hold election in 2011. But there is widespread belief that the date will be brought forward to this year, with the ageing and frail Taib forced to do so in order to consolidate his family’s hold on power.

“This is a great start to the new year 2009. After the previous by-election in Permatang Pauh, the people in KT have shown they still don’t want the BN,” said Dominique Ng, KeADILan supreme council member.

“We have been preparing the groundwork and instilling confidence in the people of Sarawak that reform will finally come to their state. And from what has been seen so far, we are confident of getting a huge majority, enough to turn Sarawak into a Pakatan-governed state.”

Not the right stuff

Meanwhile, as Umno and the 14-member BN coalition it leads perform their post-mortem on KT, political watchers say it is plain for all to see what went wrong.

“They have promised to change, but it is clear that they haven’t and they won’t. If they knew how to, they would try because of political survival and expediency. But they can’t because they don’t know how to,” said a political analyst who requested anonymity.

“Especially at Umno and MCA – the new leaders there are status-quo people. The best they can ever do is to repackage themselves. But to be able to think out of the box, to have the will to introduce changes and reform – because this is something that ultimately comes from the ability to think and to intellectualise differently – now,  this is beyond both Najib and Tee Keat.”

He was referring to deputy premier Najib Abdul Razak, who is due to succeed Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in March, and Ong Tee Keat, MCA’s president who was elected last October.

Najib in particular has drawn the biggest attention. The wealthy scion of one of Malaysia’s best known political families has been in the public eye for 33 years, and throughout much of this period, has been dogged by a series of scandals involving alleged graft and corruption.

Lately, it was also alleged that a beautiful Mongolian woman murdered in Malaysia in 2006 had been his mistress. The murder trial is now on-going with two police officers belonging to a special unit tasked to protect him accused of the killing. Najib has denied he ever met the victim, Altantuya Shaariibuu.

Shifting the blame

According to critics within Najib’s own Umno party, the blame for the KT loss must be shouldered by him as he personally directed the election campaign, and is also the party’s incoming president.

“The people rejected Umno in its present form and style and they rejected its leadership,” said Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, a veteran Umno leader and MP for Gua Musang in neighbouring Kelantan state. “I am full of admiration for the hardworking party members who toiled for two weeks on a local struggle. But we lost because of a national problem.”

However, there are also attempts by Najib’s camp to push the blame to Abdullah, as he prepares to step down soon.

And as expected, former premier Mahathir Mohamad has rushed out to defend his protege Najib, ironically using the issue of corruption as the basis for his contention.

“I think Najib is not to be blamed but if he continues to elect or support corrupt leaders then I think he will lose the next general election,” Mahathir said.  “Leaders who are discredited, who are involved with corruption, are still being chosen as candidates.”

Mahathir has himself been accused of big-time corruption in the past, and currently faces possible prosecution over allegations of having tampered with the appointment of judges to influence the outcome of cases.

Meanwhile, Abdullah stood out as the only leader in the BN pack who reassured KT people that they would not be punished for choosing to vote for change.

“When I received the news, definitely it saddened me. But what is important, BN and Umno should accept the verdict of the people,” said Abdullah.

“For BN and Umno, we will continue to serve the people in the constituency particularly because we regard the result as not a decision because of which we will forget the constituency.”

umno lost ground in the Malay areas are in shambles ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Malaysia news with tags on January 18, 2009 by ckchew

KUALA TERENGGANU: – A day after Umno lost a crucial by-election in the Malay heartland of Terengganu, several of its leaders warned that the party will become irrelevant if it ignored this warning from the ground.

Veteran Umno leader Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah said the people had rejected Umno in its present form and its leadership. ‘Barisan Nasional (BN) will lose and will in the end lose everything unless we respond fully and sincerely,’ he said.

Former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad also said that BN could lose the next general election, and went further by blaming Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi. He said the result was a vote of no-confidence in Datuk Seri Abdullah.

Dr Mahathir sees defeated Umno candidate Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh as a proxy of Mr Abdullah, as he is said to be close to the Premier’s family.

Referring to Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak, he said: ‘I think Najib is not to be blamed but if he continues to elect or support corrupt leaders, then I think he will lose the next general election.’

Mr Najib had headed the Umno campaign in the Kuala Terengganu by-election, which was called after Umno MP Razali Ismail died. Umno lost to its arch-rival Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) by 2,631 votes on Saturday.

This shifting of blame between Mr Najib and Mr Abdullah comes at a crucial time as the Premier is set to hand over power to his deputy.

Mr Najib will assume the Umno presidency, which is uncontested, in March, and should by convention, become the country’s prime minister.

This is however not a legal requirement. There is nothing to stop Mr Abdullah from remaining as Prime Minister, and there is roiling speculation that he is being pushed to do so.

‘The transition plan is on track,’ Foreign Minister Rais Yatim said. ‘But this trend of Umno losing support is frightening.’

Umno lost the most ground in the Malay areas, while the Chinese votes remained stable. Analysts and party leaders have attributed the defeat to the choice of candidate, party in-fighting, and Umno’s disconnect with the ground.

Mr Wan Farid, while an affable man, is seen as aloof. ‘I could see that he just couldn’t bring himself to ask for the people’s help to vote for him,’ said an Umno Youth party worker.

Among the rural villagers, his aloofness put him at a disadvantage against the down-to-earth candidate from PAS, Mr Abdul Wahid Endut.

But it was Mr Wan Farid’s reputed close ties with Mr Abdullah’s family that posed the bigger problem. It allowed the opposition to accuse Umno of losing touch with the ground by picking a candidate who represented the elite rather than the people.

The opposition also capitalised on the persistent anger in Terengganu over government spending on luxury projects such as the Crystal Mosque and the Monsoon Cup yacht race. The state is among the poorest in Malaysia.

The Monsoon Cup, in particular, was started by a businessman with close ties to Mr Abdullah’s family.

‘We keep saying that we want acceptable candidates but we keep picking people closer to the leadership than anything else,’ Umno Youth leader Mukhriz Mahathir said.

Voters clearly saw Umno as seriously disconnected from the ground, and may have also been turned off by Umno’s divisive style of campaigning.

Umno’s message to the Malay voters – that PAS was being forced to kowtow to its non-Malay partners – did not appear to have won the people over.

In-fighting in the local Umno branches also jeopardised the campaign.

This is the second by-election that Umno has lost since last August, when the Permatang Pauh by-election was won by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim.

That loss started a round of soul- searching and blood-letting.

As Umno revs up its own election season, this defeat is likely to spark bickering in its ranks as leaders jostle for party posts. All positions are being contested from the deputy presidency downwards.

But not everyone is convinced that the party is fully aware of the extent of the loss of support.

‘We must relook our inner core values. It’s going to be very tough,’ said Mr Rais. STS

Pakatan forms council to counter federal discrimination ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags on January 18, 2009 by ckchew
By Neville Spykerman

ALOR SETAR, Jan 18- A formal Pakatan Rakyat (PR) Chief Ministers Council and Secretariat was established today to counter what they claimed is discrimination by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Speaking to the press this evening after meeting his fellow PR mentris besar, Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng said they were fed up of being left out by Abdullah, who only met with Barisan Nasional menteris besar.

“When MBs of all states meets during the Council of Rulers, we are excluded by the Prime Minister, who meets only BN MBs separately at the end.”

Lim said they were left with two options, to either go back to their states or wander the streets of the city they were in.

“We have been patient for nearly a year and as leaders who are democratically elected by the people we felt we had no choice but to form the council.”

The establishment of the new council was formally called the Mentaloon Declaration by Kedah  MB Datuk Seri Azizan Abdul Razak who hosted the meeting in Dewan Sri Mentaloon, which is at his official residence, here.

He said the council will be used to co-ordinate the activities of the five states and was necessary to reduce miscommunication between leaders.

“Many feel that we (PR Chief Ministers) are contradicting each other and through the council we hope to sit together and iron out our differences.”

Perak MB Datuk Seri Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin said the council will meet at least twice a year and will be chaired by the menteri besar hosting the event.

Selangor MB Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim said the Council was an opportunity for them to exchange ideas and learn from each other.

“It will also enable us to manage our states more effectively.”

Kelantan MB Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat was at the meeting earlier but did not attend the press conference. MI

Video Music: A Change Is Gonna Come

Posted in Music with tags on January 18, 2009 by ckchew

Nik Aziz: Be gracious about victory

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , on January 18, 2009 by ckchew

Malaysiakini

PAS spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat urged PAS and Pakatan Rakyat leaders to be “a gracious winner” and not utter snobbish remarks that could hurt the feelings of those who lost in yesterday’s Kuala Terengganu parliamentary by-election.

MCPX

The Kelantan menteri besar said any negative statement following the victory would put the party in a bad light.

“Don’t hurt the feelings of opponents because if they are hurt, it will be difficult for us to convince them of our struggle,” he was quoted as saying by Bernama.

In the by-election, PAS won the Kuala Terengganu seat by a 2,631-vote margin.

BN’s Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh polled 30,252 votes while PAS’ Mohd Abdul Wahid, who is Wakaf Mempelam assemblyperson, polled 32,883 votes.

Independent candidate Azharudin Mamat @ Adam polled 193 votes and lost his deposit.

Nik Aziz, who is grateful for the victory, said it was a meaningful one as there were signs that the non-Muslims, especially Chinese voters, had began to understand PAS’ objectives.

Not disappointed

Meanwhile, Azharudin said he was not disappointed with the defeat and would consider contesting again in future elections.

Saying that he accepted the result with an open heart as he had already done his best, the independent said the experience had taught him a lesson on the need to make a thorough and early preparation.

“I don’t feel disheartened at all… I am aware that the people are voting for parties and not individuals,” he added.

Asked whether he would join any political party in the future, he said, it was not something impossible.

On his disappearance throughout the polling day yesterday, Azharudin said, he was at a mosque praying for the best.

He also urged the winner to fulfil the promises made and for BN not to be discouraged by the result.

“I myself will try to fulfil my promise,” he said.

Pilihanraya KT akan jadi Inspirasi Rakyat Serawak ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , , , on January 18, 2009 by ckchew

KUALA LUMPUR, 18 JANUARI (SK) – Kemenangan Pakatan Rakyat di Kuala Terengganu akan menjadi inspirasi rakyat Serawak untuk melaksanakan perubahan.

Menurut Ahli Majlis Pimpinan Tertinggi KeADILan (MPT), Dominique Ng dengan kenyakinan pengundi di Kuala Terengganu, rakyat Sarawak kini mempunyai kenyakinan untuk berubah.

Tambahnya lagi Kuala Terengganu telah menunjukan kekuatan rakyat untuk menolak Barisan Nasional serta menunjukan sokongan kepada Pakatan Rakyat.

“Ianya adalah permulaan untuk tahun baru 2009 serta selepas Permatang Pauh, rakyat telah terus menolah BN,” katanya ketika dihubungi Suara Keadilan pagi ini.

Dalam Pilihanraya Kecil Kuala Terengganu, calon Pakatan Rakyat yang diwakili oleh Pas, Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut telah menewaskan calon Barisan Nasional Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh dengan majoriti 2,631

KeADILan dan Pakatan Rakyat katanya kini sedang bekerja keras untuk membawa perubahan kepada Sawarak. Menurutnya, beliau yakin Pakatan Rakyat mampu merampas Serawak.

“Kita sedang mempersiapkan kerja bagi membawa keyakinan terhadap rakyat disini. Dan saya yakin kita mampu mendapat majoriti yang besar seterusnya menjadikan Sarawak negeri Pakatan Rakyat,” katanya lagi.

Anwar: KT bukti rakyat tolak kepimpinan Najib ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , , on January 18, 2009 by ckchew

KUALA LUMPUR, 18 JANUARI (SK) -KETUA UMUM KeADILan Anwar Ibrahim berkata kemenangan Pakatan Rakyat dalam pilihanraya kecil Kuala Terengganu membuktikan rakyat tidak lagi menerima Barisan Nasional dan kepimpinannya.

“Umno telah hilang kekuatan di kubu mereka sendiri. Kekalahan di Kuala Terengganu bermakna rakyat menolak kepimpinan Najib (Razak),” kata Anwar.

Anwar menambah kekalahan BN juga adalah kekalahan peribadi Najib kerana sebelum ini dia berkata pilihanraya ini adalah kalah mati (do or die) bagi beliau.

Mengulas lanjut, Anwar berkata perpaduan di kalangan parti-parti dalam Pakatan Rakyat merupakan faktor kemenangan di dalam pilihanraya ini.

“Kemenagan di Kuala Terengganu ialah kerana, Pas, KeADILan, DAP telah berkerja sebagai satu pasukan seperti mana yang ditunjukkan ketika pilihanraya kecil Permatang Pauh tahun lalu. Tahniah diucapkan kepada Pas dan Pakatan Rakyat,” kata Anwar kepada Suara Keadilan.

KT By-election: Pakatan Rakyat Emerged Stronger Than Ever, bn is Caught in the Mire of Shambles ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , on January 18, 2009 by ckchew

Big setback for ruling Barisan Nasional whose candidate loses by a margin of 2,631 votes

By Carolyn Hong, The Straits Times

THE ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition yesterday lost the Kuala Terengganu by-election, suffering a serious setback in its quest to win back the support of Malaysians.

Umno’s Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh lost by 2,631 votes to Parti Islam SeMalaysia’s (PAS) Abdul Wahid Endut, polling 30,252 votes to PAS’ 32,883. Independent Azharuddin Mamat got 193 votes.

The convincing margin of 2,631 votes was higher than Umno’s win in the March general election, when its MP Razali Ismail won by 628 votes.

Yesterday’s by-election was held after Mr Razali died last November.

PAS’ victory shows that the BN is slipping in its efforts to win back support even as the opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) forges ahead.

‘We are growing stronger,’ PAS president Hadi Awang said at a press conference last night.

‘It shows that cooperation is strong among the parties in the opposition. There is going to be a big change.’

Led by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, PR appears to be making inroads despite a serious setback last September, when Mr Anwar failed to topple the BN government as he had threatened.

PAS’ victory will most certainly give the opposition ammunition to push its claim to power. Last night, Mr Anwar issued a statement saying that the victory would be a catalyst to opposition supporters to work harder for its success.

Yesterday’s polling went smoothly after 10 days of intense but peaceful campaigning. Turnout was a high 79.7 per cent of the town’s 80,229 voters, of which 88 per cent are Malays, 11 per cent Chinese and 0.7 per cent Indians.

The opposition’s jubilation was already evident last Friday night, when all bets were on a PAS victory. Thousands had turned out on the streets waving flags, shouting slogans of ‘Reformasi’ and ‘Allahu Akbar’ (God is great).

The celebrations continued last night at the polling station, with thousands of PAS supporters breaking into cheers at the counting centre when the results emerged.

The winning of the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat will not make a difference to the power balance, as the BN still holds 137 seats to the opposition’s 82.

The PR needs 28 seats to seize power, and defections do not look likely at the moment.

But it is still a blow to Deputy Premier Najib Razak – who led the campaign – as it is a second loss in a row. The first loss was in Permatang Pauh last August, when Mr Anwar won the seat.

‘Of course, this is a setback for us,’ Datuk Seri Najib told reporters last night. But he added that the BN would ‘not be disheartened by the result’, and dismissed the suggestion that the outcome reflected badly on him.

‘It’s nothing to do with that,’ he said.

The loss will also weaken Mr Najib’s credibility before he is slated to become prime minister in March.

Finger pointing has already begun within the BN camp: Whispers that the candidate was the choice of Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, and not Mr Najib’s, have been going around for days.

Polling data released last night also showed that PAS has made only slight inroads in winning support from Chinese voters despite strenuous campaigning by its partner, the Democratic Action Party.

The Chinese vote remained with the BN, suggesting that while the minority vote has moved strongly to the opposition elsewhere, the issue of hudud – Islamic law that punishes offences like robbery with amputation of limbs – still holds sway in Kuala Terengganu.

But the Malay vote shifted in greater numbers to PAS – a blow to Umno, which had tried to win it back with stronger Malay rhetoric.

‘PAS and Pakatan have found out that they can hold on to the Malay vote despite BN’s efforts to play the racial card,’ said political analyst Ong Kian Ming.

‘This is significant because it is a rejection on the part of the Malay voters in Kuala Terengganu of the politics of fear.’

Malaysian Election Defeat Signal Waning Support for Najib

Posted in Malaysia news with tags on January 18, 2009 by ckchew

From Bloomberg
By Ranjeetha Pakiam

Jan. 18 — Malaysia’s National Front lost a regional election, signaling waning support for incoming Prime Minister Najib Razak after the ruling coalition suffered its worst-ever election result last year.

The Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, part of an opposition alliance, took 51 percent of votes cast yesterday in the coastal town of Kuala Terengganu, taking the seat back from Najib’s National Front coalition, the state news service Bernama said.

“The National Front is on a continuous slide down a dangerous slope,” said Khoo Kay Peng, who runs his own political consulting firm outside Kuala Lumpur. “This will not reflect well on the new leadership.”

Najib, due to succeed Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as prime minister in March, is struggling to convince Malaysians he can eradicate the corruption that party leaders say is endemic after 51 years of unbroken rule. Yesterday’s by-election may embolden opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, who is trying to rise to power with his three-party, multi-ethnic coalition.

“He can use the results to explain he has the backing of Malay voters,” said Ong Kian Ming, a Malaysian political analyst studying at Duke University in North Carolina. Some members of the National Front may now question whether Najib can lead them into the next general election, he said.

Abdullah has said he will hand over to Najib, the deputy premier, at party elections in March. The president of the party, called the United Malays National Organization, is usually also the country’s premier. Najib is standing unopposed for the position.

Anwar’s Challenge

Najib doesn’t have to call a general election before 2013. Anwar’s challenge is to convince at least 30 government lawmakers to defect to his opposition in order to take control of the 222-seat parliament and become Malaysia’s prime minister.

Race defines politics in Malaysia, where ethnic Malays account for about two-thirds of the 27 million population.

Under the 38-year-old policy of the National Front, Chinese and Indian minorities must pay more for homes and apply for jobs and contracts once Malay allocations have been filled.

Anwar’s People’s Alliance gained seats in parliament at last year’s election after pledging to scrap that program. Anwar says the policy, designed to rebalance wealth and eradicate poverty, has been abused and hasn’t met its goals.

A survey this month by the Merdeka Centre, an independent Malaysian research group, showed the privileges afforded to Malays were among the top concerns of the constituency’s ethnic minorities. The poll found that 75 percent of Chinese voters in Kuala Terengganu agreed that voting for the opposition would send a “strong signal” to the ruling government.

‘Added Momentum’

At elections last March, Anwar’s multifaith coalition won a record number of seats in parliament, denying the government a two-thirds majority. His People’s Alliance also won control of an unprecedented five of Malaysia’s 13 states.

“This win will give him added momentum,” said independent analyst Khoo. “He needs to set up a shadow cabinet to present himself as a clear alternative” to the National Front.

Anwar, Malaysia’s deputy prime minister from 1993 to 1998, won a by-election last year to return to parliament and said he would form a new government by Sept. 16, 2008. He missed the deadline, but he has since reiterated his plan to topple the government before the next general election.

Some political analysts say yesterday’s by-election outcome has little bearing on Najib’s future.

“He will take over as premier regardless of the result,” said Ibrahim Suffian, director of the Merdeka Centre. “What he needs to do now is show that the National Front is serious about tackling issues troubling them and ensure the people that UMNO is a party for all, not just the Malays.”

The primary concerns of most Malaysians are corruption and deteriorating inter-ethnic relations, said Ibrahim.

The opposition’s victory shows a spat between the Islamic and secular parties in Anwar’s alliance failed to dent support.

The Islamic party wants to set up an Islamic state with Muslim law, which can include whipping, stoning to death or amputation of limbs. The Democratic Action Party threatened to leave the alliance if the law was implemented.

We Are The Champion: A dedication to all the Unsung Hero, the volunteers for KT by-election

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

Suasana Hari Mengundi di KT

Posted in Malaysia news with tags on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

Key issues in KT by-election

Posted in Malaysia news with tags on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

Malaysiakini

Voters in this northeastern city, the capital of Terengganu, are voting in a by-election with national implications today.

MCPX

Here are some of the main issues:

TEST OF THE POLITICAL MOOD

The by-election is widely viewed as a referendum on the coalition government’s performance and popularity since March 2008 general elections that saw it suffer its worst results in half a century.

The Barisan Nasional coalition is hoping to show it has regained support with promises of reform and leadership changes after losing five states and a third of parliamentary seats in the national polls.

The Pakatan Rakyat opposition alliance, which made a failed bid to unseat the coalition late last year, wants to show it has retained support and that it is working effectively despite claims the partnership is cracking up.

RELIGION

The opposition is fielding a candidate from the conservative Islamic party PAS, setting up a clash with the candidate from the Umno which heads the Barisan Nasional coalition.

Both parties represent the interests of Malays who dominate the population of multicultural Malaysia, and the vote will also be seen as a test of which party can claim dominance in the Malay heartland.

A poll of Kuala Terengganu voters by the Merdeka Centre research firm found that for Malays the top issue was “strengthening the position of Islam”.

It said that Muslims in the state want to see their government give more funding for maintaining mosques, providing services for religious pilgrimages and supporting Muslim charities.

ISLAMIC LAW

A PAS call to reintroduce hudud Islamic law, including the amputation of hands for thieves, created controversy during the campaign and was highlighted by the government as it campaigned for support from ethnic Chinese voters.

A top figure in the Chinese-based DAP, a member of the opposition alliance, warned the issue could scuttle the partnership.

However, the Merdeka Centre polls found that just 18 percent of Chinese voters in the electorate saw the issue as “very important”.

LOCAL ISSUES

While political leaders and the media discuss national issues, on the streets of Kuala Terengganu the talk is mostly about local affairs.

There are allegations that the state government, run by the Barisan Nasional, has misspent money on expensive projects including a lavish riverside “Crystal Mosque” and the international Monsoon Cup yacht race.

The opposition said the money would be better spent on relieving poverty and improving infrastructure in Terengganu, which is rich in oil but remains one of the poorest of Malaysia’s states.

“We don’t want a Monsoon Cup, we want a monsoon drain,” said one political pamphlet.

“DIRTY TRICKS” ALLEGATIONS

The opposition has accused the government of vote-buying and coercion, allegations it denies and says the opposition is merely making excuses for an impending defeat.

The top election official in the state quit on Thursday following claims that he told civil servants to vote for the coalition or face the sack.

Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim accused the government of buying votes for RM300-RM400 from Malays, whose support it can no longer take for granted after the shock general election results.

Kemenangan Rakyat Bergema Di Kuala Terengganu

Posted in Anwar Ibrahim with tags , , on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

Alhamdulillah syukur ke hadrat Ilahi, Pakatan Rakyat berjaya menambah satu lagi kerusi di Dewan Rakyat, menjadikan jumlah keseluruhan sebanyak 83 kerusi.

Saya mengambil kesempatan ini untuk merakamkan setingi-tinggi penghargaan kepada para pengundi Kuala Terengganu kerana memilih calon PAS, YB Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut sebagai Ahli Parlimen Kuala Terengganu yang baru.

Tahniah dan syabas saya ucapkan buat Abdul Wahid serta seluruh jentera Pakatan Rakyat di Kuala Terengganu.

Saya percaya Abdul Wahid Endut akan melaksanakan tanggungjawabnya dengan sebaik mungkin, bukan sahaja kepada warga Kuala Terangganu, bahkan kepada rakyat Malaysia keseluruhannya.

Kemenangan beliau menjadi bukti bahawa rakyat sememangnya dahagakan perubahan.

Makanya hari ini kita menyaksikan di Kuala Terangganu, rakyat menuntut perubahan. Warga Kuala Terengganu melalui pilihanraya kecil ini telah memilih seorang calon yang mereka yakini akan dapat bersama rakan-rakan Pakatan Rakyat lainnya di Parlimen untuk merealisasikan agenda perubahan tersebut.

Kemenangan ini juga seharusnya menjadi pemangkin serta pencetus keazaman di kalangan pendokong Pakatan Rakyat untuk terus bekerja dengan lebih kuat, bukan untuk kita, akan tetapi untuk seluruh rakyat Malaysia. Moga Ketuanan Rakyat akhirnya menjadi kenyataan.

ANWAR IBRAHIM

Jubilant Wahid promises to do his best

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

Malaysiakini

PAS candidate Abdul Wahid Endut who bagged the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat in a fierce battle against BN candidate Wan Ahmad Farid said today that he would perform to his best as the people’s representative.

“God willing I will do my best to perform my duties as the MP,” said Abdul Wahid who was speechless after his victory.

kuala terengganu by election 080109 pas candidate abdul wahidAbdul Wahid, who is also the Wakaf Mempelam state assemblyperson, added that he would be managing his “additional task as an MP with the assistance of an additional officer”.

Immediately after the results were announced, PKR leader Anwar Ibrahim said the victory indicated the people’s want for a change.

“The Kuala Terengganu voters today have chosen someone who they believe can work with the other Pakatan Rakyat MPs in realising the reform agenda,” he said in a statement.

He added that the victory should also be a tonic for all Pakatan Rakyat leaders to work hard in achieving their aims for a better Malaysia.

With this win, the Anwar-led opposition now has 82 seats in Parliament. Barisan Nasional meanwhile has 137 seats and the remaining three seats are held by independents.

Jubilant PAS supporters

Abdul Wahid’s victory caused a jubilant atmosphere in the streets of Kuala Terengganu with PAS supporters openly expressing their joy with the victory. As a result, the roads in the city were gridlocked with vehicles.

However the day started with a sombre mood for them with the initial results indicating that it was BN who was in the lead.

But as the hours progressed and more ballot boxes were being tallied, it was quiet evident that the night, and the victory, would belong to PAS.

At about 9pm, with only two more voting streams to be announced, returning officer Wan Mustafa Hassan asked for the candidates to enter the hall for the official announcement.

Ten minutes later, Abdul Wahid accompanied by his party president Abdul Hadi Awang and deputy president Nasaruddin Mat Isa arrived at the hall. Both the BN candidate and the independent were absent from the hall.

More then 1,000 PAS supporters had also gathered at the main road outside the polling centre, catching the victory developing through large screens erected outside the stadium.

Quite a comfortable victory

Below are some immediate reactions from PAS leaders.

Abdul Hadi Awang, PAS president

It has been confirmed now that our steadfast cooperation (within Pakatan) has improved compared to the past.

Mustaffa Kamil Ayub, PKR vice-president

For PAS and Pakatan Rakyat the winning in Kuala Terengganu was very significant, especially for Pakatan’s campaign to change the federal government.

Mustafa Ali, Terengganu PAS Commissioner

This is quite a comfortable victory… it is a result of the combined effort of the coalition as well as the acceptability of the candidate and the hard work of the party workers.

Compared to the results in 2004 and 2008, we today have made inroads into Barisan territory.

KT result ‘spells trouble for Najib’

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

Malaysiakini

The ‘decisive’ victory tasted by PAS in the Kuala Terengganu by-election today spelt trouble for the government as it prepares for a leadership transition, said an expert on Malaysian elections.

Bridget Welsh, a Southeast Asian expert at the US-based Johns Hopkins University, who observed the by-election, said PAS’ victory would pose tough questions on incoming premier Najib Abdul Razak.

“This is going to call into question Najib’s rise to the prime minister’s position. There will be those who will question whether he can deliver effectively,” she said.

Deputy premier Najib is due this March to replace Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who was a casualty of the March 2008 general election that produced the worst results in Umno’s history.

Najib personally headed the government’s campaign in Kuala Terengganu, as well as another failed by-election last year which saw Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim returned to Parliament after a decade-long absence.

kuala terengganu by election results 2009 170109 simple“Of course, this is a setback for us… We will not be disheartened by the result,” Najib told a press conference, rejecting the suggestion that the outcome reflected badly on him.

“It’s nothing to do with that,” he said.

But Welsh said that figures showed the victory had come from a shift in the Malay vote away from the government – highly significant for Umno which has counted on the majority community as its bedrock.

Umno’s Malay support diminishing

Meanwhile, the opposition said its performance showed it was a working alliance despite being an unlikely partnership of PAS, Anwar’s multiracial PKR, and the predominantly Chinese DAP.

“The two factors that contributed to our success are the combined efforts of all alliance partners and the credibility of the PAS candidate,” said Mustapha Ali, head of PAS in Terengganu.

“The support by Malays for Umno is diminishing now,” he added.

This was a view shared by PAS vice-president Husam Musa, who said that Umno, which leads the BN coalition and has run Malaysia for half a century, had lost the support of Malay voters as well as the ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities.

“This shows a loss of confidence of majority (Malay) voters towards Umno, and it also represents the national mood which is to reject Umno,” he told AFP.

The official tally showed that PAS had won with a majority of 2,631, claiming 32,883 votes against 30,252 for the government which last won the seat in the state capital Kuala Terengganu with a slim majority.

“I thank the voters for giving me their trust. I will do my best,” said the victorious PAS candidate, Mohammad Abdul Wahid Endut.

- AFP

KT Waterloo: It was a horrible blow for najib razak Altantuya ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Altantuya with tags , , on January 17, 2009 by ckchew
Commentary by Wan Hamidi Hamid

JAN 17 — It was a horrible blow for Datuk Seri Najib Razak. The prime minister-in-waiting has now lost two by-elections in less than five months.

Both the by-election results saw higher majority votes for the federal opposition.

Najib did his best for his beloved Barisan Nasional in the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary by-election. Yet the voters in the BN stronghold decided to vote for Umno’s arch enemy Pas.

He made many promises, granted many projects and offered a lot of goodies, and yet the voters rejected BN.

Is this a bad omen or merely another ‘minor’ setback for the deputy prime minister who has a tough task ahead of him to take over from Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi this March?

Throughout the 11-day campaign period, Najib had worked diligently to ensure victory for BN candidate Datuk Wan Ahmad Farid Salleh. According to journalists covering the by-election, he was one of the hardest working campaigners for the federal ruling coalition.

If it was not his fault, would BN leaders blame the voters? It may not be a smart idea to do so. After all, Terengganu voters were among those who helped BN increased its votes in the state when the political tsunami hit the country on March 8 last year.

What does the result mean for Umno and BN?

Besides the expected morose look on the faces of BN leaders tomorrow, the coalition’s backbone Umno will also face yet another question on its actual strength to bring the Malays back to its fold.

This dreaded question — is Umno still relevant — will continue to haunt its leaders. Since Abdullah is set to leave the political arena, Najib has to inherit all the misgivings and wrong perception brought about by his soon-to-be predecessor.

If Umno persists in blaming others in its post-mortem of the by-election, it would simply mean it does not want to address the root cause of the problem; and would further damage the image of the party.

Worse still, Umno will continue to lose its battle against perception of elitism, ignoring the people and too concerned with its own personal interests.

Yet in a more negative way, it can also push certain party leaders — particularly those entering the race for party posts in March — to be more insular and parochial in their racial approach to win the hearts and minds of their own supporters.

This could mean a more divided Malaysia. Unless the Pakatan Rakyat is willing to step in to provide a real alternative.

Pas candidate Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut’s victory was a second coming for Pakatan; the much-need shot in the arm for the loose coalition, after Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s official political comeback five months ago when he regained his Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat.

Pas’s victory will also wipe away any possibility of the party trying to be friendly with Umno, despite the efforts by some of its top leaders almost a year ago. This will bring the party a new sense of confidence.

Other Pakatan partners — Parti Keadilan Rakyat and DAP — are already jumping for joy. Not only are they celebrating their partner’s victory, this is also the time for them to regroup for the next general election.

While the post-mortem on both sides will reveal the actual turn of events and provide more details, it can be safely deduced that most Chinese voters opted for Pas while there was a swing among Malay voters for Pas.

It was the Malay votes that had got Umno so worried and the damage had been done in Kuala Terengganu. Just like a football game, losing on your home turf will certainly have a deep psychological impact. MI

Keputusan Rasmi Pilahanraya Kecil KT: Satu Kemenangan Untuk Seluruh Rakyat Malaysia yang mahukan PERUBAHAN!!!

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

PR : 32883

BN : 30252

Bebas : 193

PR menang dengan majoriti 2631

dfb8d0dae3698f0786119ec0dd42e6c5

Pakatan wins 83rd parliamentary seat at KT & It Spell Be End of the Road for najib Altantuya ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

Pakatan Rakyat partner PAS has won the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat from Umno-BN. Pakatan candidate Wahid won by a majority of 2,631 votes.

Adds latest update from Election Commission, quotes

By Wong Choon Mei

Wahid Endut has clinched the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat for the Pakatan Rakyat, disproving claims that the coalition was weak and on the point of a bust-up.

The hard-fought victory against the ruling Barisan Nasional will breathe new life into the Pakatan’s cause, in particular, its message of reform and political transformation.

It  is also a  timely boost for its ambitions to move into the East Malaysian state of Sarawak, known to its natives as the precious Land of the Hornbills.

“This is a very special result,” said KeADILan information chief Tian Chua.

“KT is Malay heartland, yet Malays came togther with the Chinese and other minorities to vote for the Pakatan. This shows their rejection of Umno-Barisan, the racial politics that it plays, and the corruption that must be ended before it bankrupts the country.”

Sunset for the once-mighty Umno

But even as the tripartite alliance of KeADILan, DAP and PAS celebrate their 83rd parliamentary seat, the chandeliers have dimmed a notch for the once-mighty Umno and the 14-member BN coalition it leads.

The make-or-break KT seat has been widely regarded as a referendum on the acceptability of deputy premier Najib Abdul Razak as a leader of the Malay community and for the nation as well.

The 55-year old Najib is due to succeed Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in March and is also the incoming president of Umno, the largest Malay-based party. Najib now faces a possible cascade of negative reaction from his colleagues in Umno.

“KT represents a test of whether Umno can win a majority of Malay voters, whether the party is the legitimate voice of the Malay electorate,” political analyst Bridget Welsh had said.

“There is the real potential that some in Umno would question Najib’s leadership before the March 2009 party elections. Hard work only goes so far. It is the delivery that counts,” she added.

According to the Election Commission, Wahid won by 2,631 votes.

The 52-year old five-term state assemblyman drew 32,883 votes, compared with BN candidate Wan Ahmad Farid’s 30,252. Independent candidate Azharudin Mamat obtained 193 votes.

Voter turnout was nearly 80 percent, slightly less than the 82.45 percent in the previous election held in March 2008.

Truly a David and Goliath battle

Pakatan leaders rate KT as one of their most satisfying wins, describing it as a victory for their overall strategy and operational teamwork . They also likened it to snatching victory from the jaws of near death.

“They threw everything they could think of at us. You name it, we fielded it,” said Tian. “From hudud to Pakatan splitting up, to DAP and PAS at each other’s throats, whatever their controlled media could think of, they threw at us.”

“It was also very much a David and Goliath story. They had all these billion ringgit promises, all the sudden gifts and donations, the government contracts, the extra oil royalties, the list goes on.

“But we showed our sincerity and our capability. We have five states under our control and Selangor and Penang are just two examples of good and clean governance. People are not dumb, they know who is telling the truth and they want to give us the greenlight to govern for them.”

Tian was referring to the slew of election goodies unleashed by Najib in his capacity as election director. These included a proposed RM10 billion sovereign wealth fund, millions of ringgit in gifts to the Chinese community, mosques and other groups.

Pakatan also had to deal with alleged large-scale vote-rigging, intimidation of civil servants into voting for the BN,  phantom voters and even attempted bribing of journalists covering the campaign.

Official: PAS wins KT by 2,631 votes

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

Malaysiakini

9.55pm: At a press conference tonight, Prime Minister-in-waiting Najib said that the defeat in Kuala Terengganu should not be interpreted as the voters having spurned Barisan Nasional. He denied that the poll was a vote of no confidence on his leadership.

While Najib conceded that this was a setback for the ruling coalition, he nevertheless played down the importance of the by-election.

“We accept this defeat, this decision of the people. In a democratic system, the people’s voice is supreme,” he said.

“I am confident that in the end the people will be confident of BN,” he added.

At the 10-minute press conference, BN candidate Wan Ahmad Farid, was sitting next to Najib, did not say a word. Also present were Terengganu Menteri Besar Ahmad Said and Umno secretary-general Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor.

9.50pm: Its celebration time in Kuala Terengganu with PAS supporters taking to the streets to enjoy their victory, causing a massive traffic jam in this city.

9.30pm: PAS vice-president Ahmad Awang: “The win shows that Pakatan Rakyat is aviable coalition… This win is not just for PAS but for Pakatan Rakyat.”

With this win, the Anwar Ibrahim-led opposition now has 82 seats in Parliament. Barisan Nasional meanwhile has 137 seats and the remaining three seats are held by independents.

Deputy Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak has just arrived at Terengganu’s Mentri Besar residence, where only a few BN supporters were seen. BN has organised a 35-table buffet dinner outside the building but most of them were unoccupied. Najib is expected to call a press conference soon.

9.29pm: The Election Commission’s returning officer announced that PAS has won Kuala Terengganu.

9.26pm It’s official. PAS has won the Kuala Terengganu by-election with a 2,631-vote.

Its candidate, Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut, obtained 32,883 votes while BN’s Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh garnered 30,252 and Independent candidate Azhazudin Mamat obtained 193.

9.20pm: The EC is expected to announce official results at any time now. Only PAS candidate Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut is present. No BN leaders are seen at the main tally centre at the Kuala Terengganu state stadium.

Thousands of opposition supporters outside the stadium appeared jubilant.

9.10pm: According EC official tally: PAS (32,393 votes), BN (29,969), Independent (191) with two more boxes to be tallied. The majority so far is 2,424.

9.05pm: PAS leaders on the other hand, led by party president Abdul Hadi Awang, are heading towards the counting centre at Stadium Negeri to wait for the official announcement.

9.04pm: Terengganu MB’s official residence is still bereft of any top BN/Umno leaders. DPM Najib was supposed to be here at 8pm. The whereabouts of both and BN candidate Wan Ahmad Farid is unknown. At the residence, MB Ahmad Said is huddled with about 20 of his supporters.

8.55pm: Latest count - BN has reduced PAS’ lead to 1,751 votes – PAS (28,249), BN (26,498), Independent (160). With another 9,000 votes to be counted, it is very unlikely for BN to stop PAS.

Thousands of PAS supporters have gathered outside the main tally centre at the Kuala Terengganu state stadium.

Meanwhile, the official Election Commission tally has PAS leading by 543 votes – PAS (24,004), BN (21,461), Independent (136). This is based on 100 polling boxes while 44 boxes yet to tallied.

8.45pm: According PAS leaders, the party has won Kuala Terengganu by a majority of 1,600 votes. It is learnt that PAS has won in all four state constituencies. In the last general election, the party won three of the four state constituencies.

PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang is to call a press conference soon.

8.35pm: Unofficial - PAS now leads by 2,132 votes with 52,466 votes counted so far – PAS (26,971), BN (24,839), Independent (152). Another 20 percent of votes, or about 10,000 votes, yet to be counted.

PAS is certain to win the crucial Kuala Terengganu by-election with this unassailable lead.

8.20pm: BN sources say the party is ready to admit defeat.

Meanwhile, the EC official board at the main tally centre is now showing PAS leading – PAS (18,532 votes), BN (18,364), Independent (119). This tally is based on 85 boxes while 59 yet to be tallied.

8.16pm: With 48,842 votes counted, PAS has extended its lead over BN by 2,224 votes. PAs garnered 24,604 votes while BN has 22,380. Independent is way back with 142. There are about 15,000 votes left to be counted.

8.13pm: Unofficial PAS has won the Bandar state seat by 190-vote majority. This is the only state seat the party lost in the March general election. About 80 percent of the Chinese voters in the Kuala Terengganu constitutency are from Bandar.

8.08pm: Latest unofficial count: PAS increased lead to 2,026 votes. PAS (23,640 votes), BN (21,614), Independent (136). About 30 percent of votes yet to be tallied.

Meanwhile, the Election Commission’s unofficial tally has BN still leading – BN (15,385 votes), PAS (15,189), Independent (92). This tally is from 70 boxes while another 74 have yet to be tallied.

7.55pm: EC’s unofficial tally put’s BN in the lead with 11,120 votes. PAS has 10,802 votes while Independent has 69. This tally is from 50 boxes received, with 94 boxes yet to come in.

7.48pm: PAS is now leading by 1,554 votes. Its candidate has garnered 22,030 votes as opposed to BN’s 20,476. Independent candidate has bagged 134 votes so far.

7.42pm: PAS has now obtained 19,487 votes, leading by a 1,007-vote majory over BN which has gained 18,480. Independent has 117 votes. PAS is also leading in all four state constituencies.

7.40pm: PAS has extended its lead to 1,078 votes. Latest count from sources – PAS (18,934 votes), BN (17,907), Independent (113).

The official Election Commission tally board has BN in the lead with less than 10,000 votes being counted – BN (4,676 votes), PAS (3,966), Independent (26).

7.26pm: It is learnt that Deputy Prime Minister Najib has asked all BN leaders, including the BN candidate, to assemble at Terengganu Menteri Besar Ahmad Said’s official residence at 8pm.

7.25pm: PAS is leading by 778 votes. PAS (16,795 votes), BN (16,795), Independent (107). PAS is slightly ahead in all four state constitutencies.

7.15pm: PAS has increased its lead to 530 votes. PAS (16,237 votes), BN (15,707), Independent (89). Another 50 percent of votes yet to be tallied.

7.06pm: EC’s unofficial voter turnout is 79.73 percent (63,967 voters).

The highest turnout is at the Pasir Panjang polling district under the Ladang constituency – 91.72 percent (or 2,845) of the 3,102 voters had voted.

And the lowest turnout was recorded at the Paya Bunga polling district at the Bandar state constituency at 61.81 percent – only 1,429 came out to vote from a total of 2,509 voters.

7.05pm: PAS is now leading by 158 votes – PAS (14,802 votes), BN (14,644). According to inside sources, PAS is leading in all areas except the Ladang state constituency.

There are hundreds of PAS supporters outside the state stadium where the main tally centre is located. Few Umno supporters spotted.

7.04pm: Unofficial result for postal votes – BN (1.039 votes), PAS (86) and Independent (1). Majority – 953.

6.50pm: BN is leading PAS by 53 votes. BN candidate has 13,095 votes against PAS’ 13,042. The Independent candidate has bagged 72 votes so far.

Another 60 percent of the votes yet to be tallied.

6.40pm: According to inside sources, of the 14,370 votes counted so far, BN is leading by 259. Another 80 percent of votes yet to be counted.

LIVE from KT: Mood on the streets favours Pakatan

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

k-terengganu-polling-day-022

Bemused Light Strike Force keep an eye on the good-humoured exchange and canvassing outside the Chendering School. Thousands of police have been deployed

k-terengganu-polling-day-003Exuberant Pas supporters outnumber the BN folks just before noon: This scene is repeated in other streets of KT today.

1721: The Star (English), NST and Bernama have not been reporting anything new. MStar, on the other hand, is reports that the Election Commission deputy chairman is saying that turnout is close to 80 per cent at the close of polling.

1713: Unofficial Umno sources inform an analyst that Pas may have won in Wakaf, though the other areas are likely to be close. A report, which conflicts with information received earlier, suggests that the turnout at Kampong Cina could be closer to 70 per cent. The chopper continues to buzz above the city.

1659: A helicopter hovers above the city as polling draws to a close.

1648: Zunar, the Suara Keadilan editor, is predicting a 500 to 1,000 majority for Pas.

1638: The Commission is estimating a turnout of 72 per cent by 4.00pm, according to MStar. Malaysiakini reports it as 76 per cent. Will the turnout miraculously reach the Commission’s earlier prediction of 90 per cent?

1618: Harakah Daily claims that 60 per cent of voters have been checking their names at the Pas booths rather than the BN’s. Another report expresses concern about the presence of a number of FRU trucks, especially at Ladang School and other parts of the city.

1616: Election Commission chairman Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof is expecting younger voters to cast their ballots later in the day, according to The Star. Who are these youths and why are they voting so late?

The Commission is reporting a turnout of 70 per cent by 3.00pm, according to the Malaysian Insider.

1600: An analyst phones to say that the predicted result that is being talked about is anything from a 1,000-majority for the BN to a 2,000-majority in favour of Pas.  That’s a more pessimistic figure. The turnout in the Bandar state seat is apparently lower than expected, possibly due to MCA supporters staying away.

1547: Pas leaders are said to be worried about the possibility of phantom voters coming in.

1501: A DAP activist tells me that the response they got in Kampung Cina this morning was “phenomenal”. Now, this is one of the areas that the BN did well the last time around.

“The MCA folks were out there canvassing as well, but they grew frustrated at the response we received and could be seen talking into their handphones asking for reinforcements. They eventually gave up when the crowd around us grew. Soon, plainclothes police arrived and started taking pictures of us.”

1445: The predictions start flowing in. I get a text message from a colleague – 60:40 in Pas’ favour. Another text message from a friend tells me that his MCA official friend travelled to KT to help out in the BN campaign and returned the next day, sooner than expected, saying, “Susah to win.”

Blog reader Rahman S chips in:

My prediction based on gut feeling is Pas win with majority: 2,968 votes with +-2% error.

Wow, that’s pretty precise, Rahman! Many of the Pas supporters themselves are cautiously optimistic, predicting a majority of 1,000 t0 2,000 votes.

1345: On the journey of more than a dozen kilometres back to the hotel, I survey the streets to get a feel for the mood on the streets. I start counting vehicles (including motorbikes) bearing flags to try and get a rough idea of Pas and BN supporters on the move. The tally along the drive back: 40 vehicles bearing Pakatan party flags and 15 with BN flags. That’s almost 3 to 1.

Along the way, we look at the crowds of supporters, many of them women and even children, waving flags at roundabouts, intersections, near schools that are used at polling stations: again the Pas supporters clearly outnumber the BN in terms of numbers; they are smiling and look more enthusiastic and expectant.

NST is reporting that 42 per cent have cast their votes by noon. The Election Commission is expecting a 90 per cent turnout (that’s really high!) compared to a turnout of 82 per cent in the 2008 general election.

1300: A the Chendering School polling station, the Pas and BN supporters are evenly matched in terms of numbers. The Pas supporters have four tents outside for shade from the sun while the BN folks have a similar number.

Supporters from both BN and Pakatan, most of them women, line the side of the path leading towards the school.  The cheers from the Pakatan crowd are a shade more exuberant, the flag-waving a little more vigorous.

Light Strike Force personnel keep an eye and gravitate to the Pakatan side a little, but mostly the cheering and banter is good-humoured that even the riot police can’t help a smile. Riot police smiling?

Occasionlly, a van passes by with groups of youth inside and they cry out “reformasi”!  A chopper clatters overhead but nobody bats an eyelid. It has become a regular feature of by-elections.

1227: We arrive at Chendering, a rural village near the coast in the closely contested Batu Buruk state constituency inside the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat.  The mood in this closely fought seat will be a good indicator of the final result.

A fairly large crowd is gathered around the polling station. PKR Youth, Pas members and Umno members are hanging around. We are in a coffee shop filled with Pas and PKR members, judging by the light blue and green T shirts. I spot the amiable Mustafa Kamal, the PKR election operations director from Penang, and he says, “We have a fighting chance of winning.”

There’s a carnival like atmosphere outside.  The Pas supporters look a bit more enthusiatic and lively while the supporters appear a little fewer in numbers and a bit more subdued, though there were some pockets of enthusiasm.

A majority of cars passing by with flags are those from Pas, but about half a dozen motorbikes just pass by now bearing BN flags.

Says blog reader RSD:

I can conclude that Pas will win by bigger majority… great job Barisan Rakyat. Also I have a Chinese friend in KT who will be voting for Pas tomorrow. According to her, the talks among the Chinese voters there is that they are fed up with Umno/BN lies and bullying other races.

1000: We drive around the town centre. Party flags are flying all over the road. Near polling stations, Pas supporters are waving banners and flags and urging passing motorists to vote for their party. BN supporters are also out on the streets but they look a bit more subdued. We stop to take pictures of the action around a few polling stations. Police are making their presence felt.

0900: I wake up late after another bout of late-night blogging.  First things first, breakfast. My friends and I head out for some roti paun again. But before we reach the cafe in the town centre, they get diverted to a Malay coffee stall selling naan and chicken curry and tandoori. Pretty heavy stuff for breakfast, but I tag along. The stall is filled with dozens of people, despite today being a weekend holiday. Some are chatting, three others on another table reading Utusan (front page news of the bombing of a Gaza hospital), another table with police personnel, others could be voters or volunteers. Anil Netto

The Dayak dilemma Part 4

Posted in PKR with tags , , on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

Sim Kwang Yang, Malaysiakini

This concluding part to my series on the Dayak dilemma is actually about a Sarawak dilemma: Money politics during general elections.  The problem is not limited to the rural Dayak and Malay constituencies. It is rampant even in the supposedly middle class financially-independent urban constituencies.

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I should know. I contested as an opposition candidate in Kuching eight times. I could tell that most of my opponents spent millions on their election campaigns. Even in my last election in 1995, which I lost to a Supp candidate, vote buying was quite widespread.

My personal experience at the receiving end of money politics can be compiled into huge volumes. Corrupt election practices can indeed take ingenious forms.

In one case, my opponent summoned and feted all the gangs in towns before the nomination days, making offers that these hard hats could not refuse. During the actual campaign, these gangs will take over the town, street by street, hanging up the banners, watching their respective turf, intimidating my campaign workers, and serving as runners when there was heavy betting that would favour the BN candidate. These gangs were paid tens of thousands each, with limitless supply of beer thrown in as bonus.

In another election, my opponent summoned all the tut-tut drivers numbering in the hundreds to his house for a grand dinner before nomination day. The tut-tut is usually a van or a small truck driven by the vendors into every street and every housing estate to sell their meat, fish, and vegetables to housewives every day. Having been paid hundreds and thousands by the candidate, these mercenaries can make a big difference in any election.

More money on trees than hornbills

A blogger by the name of Hantu Laut has this to say on his posting on December 27 2008:

“Sarawak and Sabah are the mothers of money politics, progenitors of vote buying, political arm twisting, and the ultimate money-can-buy-anything. If words cannot convince you money can, and more often than not it works, and Sarawak and Sabah have plenty of it during election times.”

“In the Land of the Hornbills, there is more money growing on trees than the legendary birds in the forests. The forests have made millionaires and billionaires.”

If money can work in even the literate, affluent, educated and informed voters in the towns, think of what wonders it can achieve in semi-literate, isolated and impoverished rural constituencies.

It starts on nomination day, when thousands of mercenary supporters have to be transported by bus or boats over great distances to the nomination centres to wave flags and shout slogans during the nomination process. The difference between Sarawak and Peninsular Malaysia in this particular mode of campaign is the high costs of transport in my home state.

Immediately after that, the election agents of the BN candidate would issue as many Form Es as possible; eventually there should be a candidate’s agent or two in every village within the entire constituency.

Form E is an authorisation required by our election laws for anyone to canvass for votes on behalf of the candidate. In Sarawak’s jungle, it is a piece of IOU from the candidate to the voter, to be exchanged for cash after the election. The promised amount varies, depending on the size of the candidate’s war chest, and the extent of the competitiveness in the contest. In small constituencies of less than 10,000 voters say, one can buy an election victory by issuing mere thousands of Form Es,

The greatest enemy for the financially challenged opposition candidates is of course the infamously hostile terrain of Sarawak’s vast territory, which makes transport and communication prohibitively expensive.

In many rural constituencies, the only way to gain access to one village of less than 100 voters is by the boat or the four-wheeled drive. The powerful and well endowed BN candidate can just book up all the boats and four-wheeled drives in his entire constituency, leaving his opponent with little or no mode of transportation. Better still, he can book up all the petrol stations, so that the opposition candidates cannot move at all! This tactic is particularly successful in those up-stream constituencies along many of Sarawak’s great rivers!

Very common practice

Then again, I know of more than a few BN YBs who would serve up running feasts for their voters and campaigners, day and night, throughout the entire duration of the campaign period. Animals and birds would be purchased and slaughtered in great numbers, while endless supply of alcoholic drinks would stand ready for the usually very thirsty Dayak voters. They can eat and drink to their stupor; naturally they would feel morally obliged to vote for the generous hosts.

In the old days, the local home brew like langkow would have sufficed. Nowadays, I hear rural voters have higher expectations of their brew. Beer and Guinness Stout are now preferred. The candidates must thank God that the rural Dayaks have yet to discover the beauty of single malt Scotch whisky!

The free dispensation of cash is a common practice in rural constituencies. In one Bidayuh village in the Bengoh constituency near Kuching, I met a voter who had four or five party badges. He laughingly told me that whichever party candidate came to his village during the election campaign, he would be a party member with an outstretched hand with its palm up!

A few days before the voting, I used to see at various airports young men boarding helicopters with the tell tale James Bond bags.  This would be the time when information reached me that huge sums of money in small notes had been withdrawn from banks. Eventually, on the eve of polling day, voters in even the remotest village would receive their cut.

It would be all too easy to rant and rave at the stupidity of Sarawak voters for selling out their rights, as Sarawak bloggers and coffee-shop analysts are wont to do these days.

Look at it from the poor villagers’ point of view. Politicians from both the BN and the opposition parties are irrelevant in their daily life in those long years between elections. Politics is talked about only when election fever arrives at their longhouse.

These voters know quite well that the candidates will disappear after the elections, back to the towns where they would get rich with their business ventures for the next few years. They may as well get the maximum benefits for themselves while the election lasts.

Then again, the high costs of an election campaign have put off many aspiring politicians to join the usually cash strapped opposition parties. The big problem of PKR in Sarawak – at this moment of launching a serious bid for power in the next state election – is the dearth of fresh political talents to be recruited from the native middle class residing mostly in the towns.

The high costs of an election victory have also driven the cleanest of BN politicians into corruption. To sustain such expensive campaign election after election, they have no choice but to get rich on government contracts or government plantation land through their own business ventures. In the process, they have been enslaved to the biggest patron in Sarawak, Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud.  That is why defecting to Pakatan Rakyat cannot be such an attractive option.

Mother of all evils

Some cynical commentators have pointed out to me that there is one good thing that ensues from the culture of money politics in Sarawak. At least the huge dirty timber and other wealth in Sarawak can be redistributed into the pockets of the impoverished villagers during the election period. It is a twisted form of socialism.

To me, this pervasive presence of money politics in my beloved home state is the mother of all evils.

It has made a mockery of the democratic process, corrupted the political will of the people, and sent public morality to the sewers. It belies the cynical assumption that the government might as well keep the people poor, so they can more easily be bought during elections!

Not all villagers can be bought of course. In the course of my travel to many remote corners of Sarawak, I have encountered many community leaders who are wise and courageous. The trouble is the lack of dedicated committed and sincere leadership to organise and guide them to fight against the mighty BN juggernaut.

It would be too late for opposition candidates to start the campaign on the eve of another election. The voters do not know them, and would just lump them together with the BN leaders as yet another cash cow. Even if the opposition candidate has a few millions at his disposal, he will be outspent by his BN opponent.

The odds can only be overcome long before the election begins.  The aspiring opposition candidate has to build his party structure throughout his entire constituency since yesterday. He has to visit every village during the non-election years, and help solve the villagers’ problems. He has to fight alongside them whenever they face problems with their NCR land. It demands tremendous personal sacrifice, but there is no short cut for success in a movement for justice and democracy.

It can be done, but are there enough concerned Sarawakians prepared to pay the price?

Pakatan suspects foul play, with 42 pct having voted in KT ~ Malaysiakini

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

The result at KT will not immediately change the power balance in the country, but it will be the clearest sign yet of whether Malaysians want reforms to continue, or screech to a stop.

It is also a key referndum on the acceptability of deputy premier Najib Razak as leader of the Malay community and the entire nation.

Given such high stakes, no wonder signs of foul play have emerged. Pakatan leaders and  watchdog groups believe that phantom voters will be fielded soon and allowed to slip past the EC.

Adds quotes from Pakatan leaders and political analysts

By Wong Choon Mei, SK

It has been four hours since polling began and according to the Election Commission, about 42 percent of the electorate in Kuala Terengganu has voted so far.

Most of the those who voted this morning were the older group, while younger voters have yet to make their presence felt, the EC said.

Meanwhile, KeADILan information chief Tian Chua expressed concern that phantom voters might slip past the EC and pad up the result for the BN.

“How can the EC forecast a 90 percent turnout at 12 noon when only 42 percent have come out to vote so far. Usually in each election, the number that comes out to vote in the morning is more than those who come in the afternoon,” said Tian.

“On that basis, how can the EC made such a prediction for 90 percent turnout. We question and doubt their motive in coming out with such a statement.”

Observers also said there was still no clear trend yet as to who will triumph today at the make-or-break Kuala Terengganu by-election – Pakatan Rakyat’s Wahid Endut or Barisan Nasional’s Wan Ahmad Farid.

Nevertheless, most pundits believe the momentum will build up quickly in the afternoon, hopefully before the rain forecast by the Meteorological Department falls. Voting will stop at 5 pm and the EC hopes to announce the result by 10.30 pm.

Pakatan’s Wahid was the first to cast his vote, arriving at his polling centre way before the official starting time of 8 am.

“I don’t want to predict anything. I hope the voters will be more politically mature. This time I think I have no problems with the Chinese voters,” Wahid said.

Fielding phantom voters

The five-term state assemblyman for Wakaf Mempelam also urged the Election Commission to stay alert and ensure fair play.

“If the referee tak adil (is not fair), not only the players will be not satisfied, the penonton (spectators) and also the pengundi (voters) will be not satisfied,” Wahid said.

So far, the situation in regards to crowd and traffic appears to be under control. There are 80,229 registered voters, who are eligible to cast their ballot at the 36 polling centres set up around the constituency.

But it is the unusually high police presence of more than 6,000 personnel that is worrying the Pakatan.

“We are quite confident of winning, provided there are no phantom voters. The large police presence in KT has given rise to worries that they might be roped in to pose as phantom voters on polling day,” Tian said.

“Sure, it is partly meant to intimidate you and to give an impression that trouble may be brewing over the horizon, especially if Barisan Nasional does not win the by-election. But this is not the real reason,” said blogger Raja Petra Kamarudin, who is campaigning for the Pakatan in KT.

“They are hoping that at least 20,000 to 25,000 of you will not come out to vote. This is quite normal because in any election the best we can expect is a 70% or so voter turnout. 30% of 80,000, therefore, comes to roughly 20,000 to 25,000 ‘no show’ voters.

“They can then always ‘safely’ increase the voter turnout to 75% and no one will be the wiser. This means they can pad the ballot boxes with about 4,000 to 5,000 ‘additional’ votes with no problems whatsoever. Now can you see why they need 6,000 police personnel in Kuala Terengganu?” added the indomitable Raja Petra, uncowed despite his recent arrest under the oppressive Internal Security Act.

Najib’s political neck on the line

Meanwhile, BN candidate Wan Ahmad Farid expressed confidence.

“God willing, voters will choose intelligently and vote for continuity through BN,” said the 46-year old former deputy home minister. “I have worked hard, I have faith that voters will make the wise decision to give me a chance.”

Azharudin Mamat,  the third candidate in the three-way tussle, did not cast his vote as he is registered under the Petaling Jaya Utara parliamentary area.

As an Independent candidate, the 46-year old businessman is not considered a serious contender, although he may pull some votes away from either Wahid or Wan Ahmad later on.

The result at KT will not immediately change the power balance in the country, but it will be the clearest sign yet of whether Malaysians want reforms to continue, or screech to a stop.

Perhaps, even more critically, it will reflect on the popularity of incoming premier Najib Abdul Razak and the strength of his leadership in the Malay community – the largest ethnic group in the nation.

“KT represents a test of whether Umno can win a majority of Malay voters, whether the party is the legitimate voice of the Malay electorate,” political analyst Bridget Welsh said.

“There is the real potential that some in Umno would question Najib’s leadership before the March 2009 party elections. Hard work only goes so far. It is the delivery that counts,” she added.

A close fight has been predicted by most pundits, although popular analyst Ong Kian Ming has gone against the herd, forecasting a PAS win by a majority of 7,000 votes.

In the previous election held in March 2008, the BN had retained the seat with a 628-vote majority against PAS.

‘PAS to win by 7,000 majority’

Posted in Pakatan Rakyat with tags , on January 17, 2009 by ckchew

Malaysiakini

There is this phenomenon in the United States called Monday Morning Quarterback.

MCPX

It describes a person who says that he or she always knew what the outcome of the Sunday football games was going to be and proceeds to give an explanation for why the game resulted in the eventual result. In other words, this person is passing judgment from a position of hindsight, which is always 20/20.

I could easily play this game in regard to the upcoming Terengganu by-election. It would be far too easy for me to list down, on Sunday, reasons as to why PAS won the by-election and at the same time, to have ready an alternative list of reasons as to why the BN/Umno managed to win the same by-election in case of an upset.

Below shows some of these reasons on both sides.

kuala terengganu by election reason why pas and umno won

It is however a far harder and much riskier endeavour to predict who is going to win, and by what margin, before the fact.

In a previous analysis piece in Malaysiakini, I predicted that PAS would win by a majority of 3,300 votes based on a breakdown of different turnout and voting components. In the same article, I also reserved the right to update my prediction as and when new information was made available to me.

I came upon new information recently in the form of two Kuala Terengganu surveys conducted by the Merdeka Center, one in December 2007 before the March 2008 general election and another one conducted just last week.

I then used my own methodology to make an educated guess as to what the voting patterns will be today in the KT by-election.

Don’t expect by-election to be a close fight

Let me make it absolutely clear that the surveys done by Merdeka Center do not give conclusive or definitive results as to how the Malay and Chinese voters were/are going to vote.

The reason is because when asked about their voting intentions, about half of the voters did not indicate who they were going to vote for by responding ‘don’t know’ or ‘my vote is secret’.

In addition, there is always the possibility that some respondents will mask their true voting intentions because of the fear that the surveyor may be someone from the Special Branch who is trying to find out if this individual is leaning opposition or BN.

In other words, some voters may say that they are voting for BN to the surveyor but actually have no intention of voting for BN. This makes predicting or forecasting voting trends based on survey results much more of an art than science.

kuala terengganu by election candidates 060109 wan ahmad farid mohd abdul wahid endut azharudin mamatBut a political analyst worth his or her salt should be willing to put his or her analytical skills to the test by trying to guess the voting intentions of those who did not indicate their voting preference using a variety of tools and techniques.

For example, one can try to compare the answers of those who have indicated their voting preference either for BN or for the opposition and ascertain if an individual who has not revealed his or her voting preference is more like the typical BN or opposition voter. Or one can try to estimate the changes in the underlying responses of those surveyed over time to guess at whether the voters are leaning more towards BN or the opposition compared to past surveys.

I have used a variety of quantitative and qualitative methods to arrive at the prediction I am about to make.

For the purpose of brevity, I shall not go into the details here. If my predictions are in the ballpark of the eventual result, I may explain it later. If my prediction is way off, it’s back to the drawing board for me.

Regardless, I am making my prediction public so that I can be held accountable for my predictions after the fact. The easier alternative would be to play it safe and to say that the race is too close to call and then try to explain the outcome after the fact – like a good Monday Morning Quarterback.

But my analytical findings tell me that the eventual outcome will NOT be close and I do not think that I would be honest if I told my friends otherwise.

How I calculate the predicted majority

Here then are the details of my prediction and the steps I use to calculate the predicted majority.

In the previous article, I said that I did not have conclusive evidence to show me that the Malay vote was trending either to the opposition or BN. I simply said that split voting that worked in BN’s favour in March 2008 would not occur again in this by-election.

But by comparing the underlying responses of those in the 2007 and 2009 surveys using my own estimating techniques, I found consistent evidence that the Malay vote has swung to PAS since the time when the 2007 survey was taken in December of that year.

My estimates show that the Malay vote will swing to PAS by approximately 4%. Given that my estimate of the Malay support for BN was 47% in 2008, this means that the overall Malay support for the BN will fall to 43% or that PAS will win 57% of the Malay vote (not including postal votes).

With an estimated Malay turnout of 81% (slightly less than 2008) and by excluding spoilt votes and votes for the independent candidate (which I estimate to total approximately 2%), this translates into a majority of 7,720 for PAS among the Malay voters.

Among the non-Malays (mostly Chinese), I estimate that the turnout will decrease by approximately 10% from 65% in 2008 to 55% in 2009, primarily because of the Chinese New Year holidays that will take place the following week.

Among the non-Malays who will turn out, I estimate a BN support level of 45%. This represents a significant 20% swing in the non-Malay vote from 2008. This is consistent with the Merdeka Center survey results as well as the feeling from the ‘ground’ that the Chinese vote has swung against the BN and in favour of the opposition. Because of the relatively lower turnout and small percentage of Chinese voters in this constituency, this works out to a 510 vote margin in favour of PAS.

The Malay and non-Malay majorities calculated above results in an 8,230 majority in favour of PAS. However, there are approximately 1,300 postal votes in this constituency. Assuming that 90% of the postal votes will go to the BN, this means that BN will have a majority of 1,170 votes from postal votes alone.

Subtracting this figure from the 8,230 majority, I arrive at the final prediction of 7,060 votes or approximately 7,000 votes. This represents a 3,700 vote increase from my initial prediction of 3,300 votes for PAS.

PAS to gain 4% swing in Malay votes

The main reason for this is because of my assumption, based on my own analysis of the Merdeka Center survey results from 2007 and 2009, that the Malay vote has swung in favour of PAS by a margin of 4%.

Some may say that for me to predict a swing in the Malay vote to PAS by a margin of 4% is foolhardy and doesn’t make sense given that most people are saying that the Malay vote is split 50/50 or that PAS has only a slight edge.

Again, I could have easily hedged my bets and echoed what everyone else is saying. But my analysis of the underlying responses in both surveys leave me with no other choice but to conclude that the Malay vote will swing in PAS favour.

Of course, the underlying sentiment may have changed among the Malays in the week since the 2009 survey was taken or that the accusations by the opposition of massive vote-buying on the part of the BN will come true or that the final push by the BN to undermine the reputation of PAS among the Malays may have worked to turn the tide in BN’s favour.

I have no way of ascertaining if any of this is true. Neither do the people on the ground. Their guess in regard to the effectiveness of these last-minute strategies is as good as mine. And my instinct tells me that while these sorts of strategies may have worked in the past, they will not work in this KT by-election.

So there you have it, my prediction is that PAS will win by a majority of 7,000 votes. Tonight, I will know if my analytical skills have served me well … or not!


ONG KIAN MING is a PhD candidate in political science at Duke University. He can be reached at im.ok.man@gmail.com. Malaysiakini will cover the vote counting LIVE beginning at 7pm.

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